Predictable but worrying data showing continuing rises in daily case numbers and a increases in hospitalisations. We're now seeing 500 daily hospitalisations, and some NHS trusts are already having to cancel routine operations & delay cancer care. 🧵
The spread among school-age children and young adults is frankly quite shocking. The almost vertical line here says it all.
Most outbreaks are in educational settings - rapid increases week on week. Large numbers of outbreaks in both primary and secondary schools.
>10,000 people who were confirmed positive last week had attended primary school & >13,000 had attended secondary school.
The most common activity reported by those testing positive prior to symptom onset was attending an educational or childcare setting.
Case incidence in college students, secondary school children, and young adults is skyrocketing right now, and is near the January peak, when schools were closed due to uncontrolled spread.
Broken up by year group- huge increases in a single week.
Both REACT-1 and ONS data - that are not based on symptom based testing - confirm this pattern. Highest infection prevalence in young adults and secondary school children.
Hospitalisations still rising among the elderly, where vaccine uptake and full dosing is very high.
All in all this is incredibly worrying, and will have huge impacts on long-term health among the young, our frontline NHS staff, and routine healthcare. And of course, increases the probability of spawning new variants, with more escape against vaccines.
Here's our letter in the Lancet signed by hundreds of scientists and health care workers asking for government to take urgent action now to protect our public.
Scientists/healthcare staff can sign to support here:
Let's address the 'it's better to do it now than in winter argument', because this is a completely false one, and it's been disappointing to see even scientists repeat it without a full understanding of the options being weighed, and the problems with models assessing this.
This argument is based on the Imperial model which compared reopening in late July vs reopening in winter. Things the model didn't assess:
-booster doses for vulnerable
-vaccinating children
-mitigations in schools before re-opening in Sept
-long COVID
-variant adaptation
Of course when you don't include any of these possibilities - then having mass infection in children over the summer (in the hope they develop immunity from infection) blunts the impact of school-reopenings in winter *on deaths* - when vaccine immunity the vulnerable is waning.
This tone-policing message from a paediatrician in my DMs. The ONS data shows we have 9000 children now living with long COVID for > 1 yr. Why do we need to understand 'how it differs from post-viral syndromes' to take it seriously. Isn't the suffering of those affected enough?🧵
If other post-viral syndromes are this severe, surely we should be taking all of them seriously, not dismissing this one. Shouldn't paediatricians be basing their level of concern on the symptoms being reported by those affected? I'm a clinician, and have always done this.
The notion that this may be 'psychological issues in young people' at a point in time evidence tells us this is a neuroinvasive virus that causes multi-organ dysfunction even in young adults (studies not done in children so far), with markers of thrombo-microngiopathy in children
Our letter in @TheLancet signed by >120 scientists on the government's dangerous strategy of allowing mass infection. We call on govt to pause its plans & take urgent action to protect the public
The governments strategy of letting cases surge while only half our population is fully vaccinated is beyond reckless. This will create a generation of young with chronic illness who could've been vaccinated in the coming weeks.
We are holding an emergency summit tomorrow at 10am to outline our grave concerns about the UK government’s current strategy & the urgent steps we need to take to protect our public.🧵
What on earth is going on with the mess that is govt's current COVID-19 strategy? Not only is it completely unscientific, it's also unethical and inhumane. We must not accept what can only be described as mass endangerment of children & young people. We must challenge this.🧵
Yesterday, the govt announced dropping mandatory restrictions on the 19th July. Sajid Javid admitted today that this may well lead to 100,000 daily cases over the summer- as @JonAshworth says this means 5000 cases of long COVID each day. theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
The estimates by @guardian of 2 million cases over the summer are quite conservative. @chrischirp estimates suggest 90-100K daily cases by 19th July if growth continues as is. As @chrischirp shows, this would mean *1 million* cases by 19th July alone.
Some thoughts on the PMs briefing today:
-false 'now or never' narrative alert
-no mention of long COVID or CV
-implicit that mass infection of young doesn't matter
-abdication of govt responsibility
-Internal inconsistency and confused messaging🧵
First, the 'now or never' narrative.
The govt says we are in a position to open up because vaccines are working well and keeping hospitalisations down. The PM says that if we don't open up now, when? He & Whitty claim opening up in winter may make matters worse. Is this true?
This is an interesting claim- the suggestion is that we should let it rip now, rather than delaying, because then the surge will coincide with winter leading to a bigger wave.
This claim doesn't even pass basic scrutiny Here's why: