Thread by @btcfeen

A little thread on buyers vs sellers.

Sellers: right now there shouldn’t really be any forced sellers (liquidations) left. Oi really hasn’t increased in this range if anything funding has been negative in this range so likely shorts that would be forced buyers if we break up

Short term holders are almost completely gone. We can see this is the data as this low 3k range has had the highest amount of realized losses for short term entities in history.

These were weak handed buyers that joined after 20k broke and were “get rich quick” types

They are gone now. So what about medium term holders? I think this is the only possible supply left. People that bought 6m to 1 year ago before the 20k breakout. These sellers will likely sell some more if 30k is breached but don’t have that much ammo

Long term entities sold the rise to 40k and have since been accumulating. We haven’t had any major coin days destroyed so they are likely waiting for higher prices to sell.

Miners have surprisingly not been selling much since the initial rise to 42k near the start of 2021. Remaining miners are profitable since the difficulty adjustment. Also miners have a lot more access to lending and derivatives hedging now, leading to less forced selling

Chinese miners might have some forced cost from the move but this hasn’t showed up in the data yet.

So overall we only have to worry about medium term supply. So let’s move on to the buy side

We know the stablecoin ratio is near the lows. This means that there is a lot of potential buying power in stables atm. BTC is a very reflexive asset so buying leads to more buying. Price just needs to pop above 35k to start this imo

We know big money is buying below 34k. They are just resting limit bids atm. Smart money being patient hoping more weak hands will sell to them. Scott minerd types fudding to try to accumulate here or lower

As I mentioned earlier, funding has been negative. Anytime this happens for a prolonged period it rarely ends well for bears and at least a a squeeze occurs

Technical traders are waiting for pa to look more constructive. That would happen above 35k and 41k imo

So overall my thoughts are this. BTC is setting up for a squeeze upward. It’s still possible a break below 30k unlocks more supply but there is big money looking to gobble up that supply