Was asked if could get long COVID from a mild breakthrough infection with delta? No, likely not from pathophysiology. Persistent symptoms usually occur after a severe viral infection; lot of poor methodology of long COVID studies. Best review here nature.com/articles/s4159…
And here is one of the best done analyses in terms of methodology which showed that more symptomatic * severe acute illness associated with more prolonged symptoms after (breakthroughs in vax'd generally mild) ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
This paper shows something similar- again, it is very important to look at the methodology of how analyses are done before taking statistics like 20%, 50%, etc. from insurance ICD-10 codes or other poorly done studies nature.com/articles/s4159…
And another paper from the VA - having symptoms that last a while after associated with having been in the ICU for COVID-19, then those who are hospitalized with COVID. Those in hospital now with COVID in US mainly unvaccinated, compassionate education nature.com/articles/s4158….
Kids therefore much less likely to get mild COVID as unlikely to have severe disease. And in adults, with a vax breakthrough, have immune response from vaccine so T cells and antibodies go in to stop viral replication (in nose & elsewhere) - different from infection without vax
And will add this thread from pediatric ID specialist @apsmunro here for specific information on children:
CDC school guidance released. What I appreciated was that the guidance acknowledged what the US did (more than Europe/UK) was so difficult for children in terms of mental health effects & other disorders and that in-person learning essential. cnb.cx/3r0Pb2E
Didn't acknowledge data from yesterday, all year, low risk of young children; Europe, UK, WHO decide which mitigation strategies needed differentially by age. Each state will tailor. CA Gov recall partially based on CA being 50/50 for in-person learning nytimes.com/2021/06/08/opi…
When looking at COVID hospitalizations/100K to confirm your county has reached metric proposed of <5/100K, use this HHS dataset: lists confirmed COVID hospitalizations (since universal screening, must confirm admission reason). Most US counties at metric protect-public.hhs.gov/datasets/HHSGO…
The risk of children under 18 developing serious illness or dying from Covid-19 is very slim, said researchers, who found a death rate of 0.005% in England—lower than initially thought wsj.com/articles/in-ch… via @WSJ
Very comprehensive study- can help ease some of the parents' fears about school opening
Wanted to explain one more thing before I go for my break which is the difference between what T cells and antibodies do for you in terms of protecting you against COVID. T cells protect you against severe disease. We have already gone over how variants rupress.org/jem/article/21…
unlikely to evade T cell immunity since 80-100 T cells line up across the spike protein so 10-13 mutations of variants can't evade that many T cells. You have the data in the T cell thread but here are the 2 best papers on this- 1st here biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Here is the 2nd paper on this. Variants can't evade our T cell response so we are protected against severe disease. That is why vaccines 92-100% protective against severe disease in the real-world or the trials variants or not cell.com/cell-reports-m…
Let's be perfectly clear about the delta variant in our reporting, please- this strain is not spreading like wildfire across the US. This strain is spreading in highly unvaccinated regions without natural immunity. Please look at orange map in link below covidactnow.org/?s=2016935
Clear reporting provided here (as always) by @DLeonhardt from the @nytimes in the article below. "In many urban and suburban communities, Covid continues to plummet. The rate of new daily cases has fallen below 3/100,000 residents in large cities like ... nytimes.com/2021/07/07/bri…
Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Washington.". Since I live in SF, news reporters ask me if our unvax'd children are safe from Covid - I say yes, please look at transmission + vax rates ("wall of immunity")
Why is stressing vaccines work against delta so important? Because they do & because understandably saying they don't is making "anti-vaxxers" say don't take vaccine. I & Dr. Shafir & Dr. Hotez @PeterHotez interviewed for this piece motherjones.com/politics/2021/…
"While the Delta variant is worth taking seriously—it does spread more easily..there isn’t enough evidence that it is deadlier than other strains. Crucially, they emphasized that the vaccines are proving to be powerful tools against Delta and other variants of this virus."
So far, "data also indicates that breakthrough infections, when they happen, tend to be mild or asymptomatic. In a recent study published in the NEJM for instance, researchers followed nearly 4,000 frontline workers for four months beginning in late 2020" nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
"Britain’s recent rise in cases [many due to delta] has yet to be followed by a commensurate rise in hospital admissions or deaths. ..the widespread deployment of vaccines .. has weakened the link between infection and serious illness" so reopening 7/19 nytimes.com/2021/07/02/wor…
Or here is a nice illustration of this effect that vaccines are delinking cases from hospitalizations in the UK from the BBC (which is why following case counts is no longer the reliable metric of subsequent hospitalizations it used to be before vaccines)