Thread by @trygveolson

@ProjectLincoln @SteveSchmidtSES @reedgalen @TheRickWilson @stuartpstevens @JoeTrippi This is violent political extremism. What is more important than the video is how we got to this place in the United States.

https://twitter.com/votevets/status/1413569444010397697

What leads Americans to feel their democratic system is failing so badly they have to resort to this kind of violence. In working worldwide helping build democracy's values, I would often say you either settle a nation's difference through the ballot box or on the streets.

Liberal Democracy uses the former. Illiberal Autocracy uses the latter. Democracy is faith in each other. Illiberalism is fear of each other. The video is about Americans who are afraid and without faith in the legitimacy of the democratic system.

The actions are intended to create fear through trial by combat to use Rudy's words. They have a grievance -- it has caused violent radical extremism. It was built around a big lie -- the grievance is imaginary.

Yet, it isn't the Big Lie that leads to this place. It is silence from so many who should, and in many cases, swore a constitutional oath to the people, thereby becoming "elected leaders," like @GOPLeader @EliseStefanik @SenTedCruz @LeaderMcConnell @marcorubio @ScottforFlorida

They knew it was a lie -- they chose the path of expediency and self-interest through silence and compliance, or worse through cleverly supporting and repeating it. Violent radicalization arises in the political from political extremism.

There are four primary psychological factors leading well-intended people down such a path. The first is PSYCHOLOGICAL DISTRESS. Events cause uncertainty in people's lives -- they can big societal like changing demographics, pandemic, evolving values, War, or an economic crisis

They can also be personal like unemployment, trauma, or loss. Regardless of the reasons for the distress, people want certainty why such things occurred to them and their world. Uncertainty creates a desire for simple answers providing assurance. This is why the violence occurred

There is always the potential for craven politicians (or want to be autocrats) to offer such COGNITIVE SIMPLISTIC solutions even when they know the truth is something far different. When this occurs, those who accept such answers

(Build a Wall & Mexico will pay or Abolish the Police) become OVERCONFIDENT in their own beliefs. The answers are simple & easy to understand. Facts that fly in its face are dismissed because those facts would return the extremists world back to being uncertain.

Thus, there is an INTOLERANCE that forms. Anyone challenging the extremists' foundational beliefs is unenlightened. They are fools -- intellectually, morally, and politically inferior to the political extremist who is OVERCONFIDENT.

They are an enemy of people like them who must be stopped at all costs. Illiberalism and Autocracy are zero-sum propositions. In recent polls, 49% of Americans view the other side as enemies rather than political opponents.

Our democracy will be hard-pressed in the coming elections of 22 and 24 to overcome this. Democracies fail when those in power reach a tipping point -- I call this the Gonchar Line after a Belarussian opposition leader murdered by Alexander Lukashenko's regime to remain in power.

Lukashenko crossed the rubicon by ordering the murder, his main rival. Afterward, there was no going back by peacefully transitioning power. On 1.6 we came close to passing the Gonchar Line.

In fact, those who participated in planning or the operation in positions of power perhaps understood they had done so. Yet, they are only held accountable if others are willing to honestly admit the threat.

To date, beyond a few courageous Republicans in Congress like @Liz_Cheney, @MittRomney and @AdamKinzinger it isn't looking good. The thing is, when a point of OVERCONFIDENCE and INTOLERANCE is reached, it becomes tough to get these people to even hear other perspectives.

It requires something which creates cognitive dissonance. Think @LindseyGrahamSC saying he was done on the night of 1.6 (unfortunately, he wasn't). What is most tragic about the aftermath of 1.6 on the GOP side is they had a moment to purge this kind of extremism from the party

Instead, they passed because that would have lead to the short-term consequences of losing elections. Once again, most still are either sitting in silence or appeasing the new big lies (CRT, Communism, COVID Shots door-to-door) as extremism grows.

The next three and a half years will be some of the most consequential in our nation's history. One's rivaling the Civil War period, World War II, 1968, and the aftermath of 9.11. Moments when the fate of a nation's existence as we know it hangs in the balance.

Each of us must decide will we have faith in each other or let fear of each other kill our founding father's great experiment. What side will you be on -- the one of democracy through faith in each other or the side of the fear and the people in this video?