18 months into the pandemic, and after many pleadings and prodding’s, including from Congress, CDC still doesn’t have a robust system for comprehensive, near-real-time surveillance of new variants. Data on their web site is at least 3 weeks old, even as new variants move fast.
This is a question of resources, capabilities, and mission. We don’t have the equivalent of a JSOC for public health crisis. We don’t have a heavy lift capability that can do all the tracking and deployment needed to monitor and respond to a fast moving infectious disease crisis.
What’s needed is a more operationally equipped capacity in CDC - a prospective rather than a retrospective mindset. It will require a re-thinking of the organizational structure and mission. I devote a lot of focus of my forthcoming book Uncontrolled Spread to these issues.
As for Delta, given velocity of its spread in countries with better tracking like UK, we should assume it’s far more pervasive than CDC data from mid June suggests. The concern is always the next variant: and will we spot new strains and new diseases with the lead time we need?
In January, when we suggested in @WSJ op ed wsj.com/articles/send-… that we should set as goal to sequence 5% of all SARS2 samples - as a tripwire for detecting new strains early enough - this was the response to us (on Twitter!!) from a senior @CDCgov official, to the proposal.
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People ask why the question of COVID's origin matters at this point, since it won't impact how we address the pandemic. We already know what we need to know about how this virus behaves. But it does matter, a lot: because it impacts how we address risks of future pandemics. 1/x
If we assess probability exists, or rate as high, likelihood it came out of a lab; we must put security of BSL3/4 labs and greater supervision of high end research (and publication of dangerous synthetic sequences) much higher on list of priorities for international governance.
We must get our clandestine agencies that operate oversees more engaged in the public health mission; conducting surveillance of dangerous research that could lead to future threats. I discuss in detail how this mission could unfold in my forthcoming book Uncontrolled Spread 3/x
Covid positivity rates in parts of Brooklyn, Queens are approaching 15%, among highest in nation. NYC deserves close watching. Variants now represent more than 60% of infections, and B.1526 is majority strain and is probably being undercounted because of way we're sampling. 1/2
Vaccination represents a chance to get ahead of these trends. There are 13,000 open appointments in NYC this morning, mostly in pharmacies, as NYC makes major expansion. In meantime, we need CDC to help determine if 1526 is causing breakthrough infections.
Overall cases and hospitalizations are still declining in NYC, which is good news, but testing is also falling sharply. We need better ways to more quickly link clinical outcomes with the variants we're observing, especially B1526, a new variant that we don't understand well yet.
As current epidemic surge peaks, we may see 3-4 weeks of declines in new cases but then new variant will take over. It'll double in prevalence about every week. It'll change the game and could mean we have persistent high infection through spring until we vaccinate enough people.
New variants may change everything. They'll be 1% of all cases by end of next week, with hot spots in Florida and Southern California. But doubling every week, they'll be about 30% of all cases in 5 or 6 weeks. It'll be harder to hide from them, schools will be more vulnerable.
What can we do? We're in a race against time to get as much protective immunity into population as backstop against continued spread. The vaccine is our only tool. We also need to become more vigilant about masking. Quality of mask matters more now. N95 best, or double masking.
THREAD: Covid cases are accelerating across the U.S. and we have some hard months ahead. We are at the beginning of exponential spread in many states. We need to take steps now to preserve life, and know that things will get better, and 2021 will be a very different year. 1/n
We’ll have better technology and therapeutics to address risk and protect people. We’ll have more experience caring for the sick. We’ll see infections decline as we get through this surge and enter spring. We must take steps to preserve and elevate what’s most important to us 2/n
That must include preserving in class learning for kids and re-opening schools. There are steps we can take right now to make sure kids can be back in school as current surge subsides, or keep more kids in school where classes are open. It starts with helping protect teachers 3/n
It is deeply unfortunate that we head into Fall without enough doses of this drug. Many of us were talking about this as early as March. Regeneron did extraordinary work to secure their own manufacturing, but we needed a concerted industrial effort to get the supply we needed.
Re-upping this July Op Ed. Some of the same opportunities we identified here are still open to us. But we need to start taking steps immediately to have enough of these drugs to use as a backstop for high risk patients; and a bridge until we get a vaccine. wsj.com/articles/antib…
The number of Covid cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is going to continue to grow sharply as we enter the winter; until all of us on our own start taking enough collective action to slow the spread. There is no seasonal backstop, and won’t be any new national policy action.
When people wear masks, it reduces likelihood of spreading Covid if they're an asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic carrier. A new @Nature study finds if 85% of Americans wore masks, we would save 95,000 people. Greater adherence to masking will reduce spread. nature.com/articles/s4159…
Masks can also protect you from contracting Covid if you are exposed to someone who is contagious; and the quality of the mask you wear can matter. The higher the quality of the mask, the greater the protection that it can afford you.