-->We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent that can survive a US first strike and retaliate in sufficient numbers to defeat US missile defenses.
There is a certain value of "rationality" for which this makes sense.
The point of a deterrent nuclear force is to survive an adversary's first strike and strike back. That prevents the adversary from making that first strike, according to deterrence theory. 2/
But I can't help reading it another way.
Why would anyone start a nuclear war?
A first strike intended to disable China's nuclear forces, even before this expansion, would involve hundreds of nuclear weapons. Those hundreds of nuclear weapons would damage the US as well. 3/
Fallout, smoke, even without a return strike by China. Which, of course, would come. Nuclear damage to the US as well.
Likewise, why would China strike the US? The same reasoning applies. 4/
Yes, imagine your scenarios of defending Taiwan or a skirmish in the South China Sea. Would that be worth a smoky sky for everyone, greatly increased cancers, difficulty growing crops, and probably worse? Is anything worth that? 5/
We have to find better ways to resolve those differences. 6/6
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@Joshua_Pollack When I feel hopeless about the pandemic never ending, I remind myself that it will.
Globally, people will receive the vaccine or they will get sick. Some of the sick will become immune or will die. Either way, they will be taken out of the susceptible pool. 1/
@Joshua_Pollack The susceptible pool will continue to decrease, so eventually the pandemic will become manageable.
We need to increase production of vaccines so that more are vaccinated more quickly. That will decrease the number of deaths. 2/
@Joshua_Pollack I take the reports of vaccine-resistant variants and waning of immunity with a grain of salt. Much of this looks to me to be wildly overblown. If we have a base of vaccinated people, we have time to deal with it. We're unlikely to have a variant that makes us start from zero. 3/
Back in 2002, I waited to hear the intelligence analysis on the aluminum tubes. I knew that part of the analysis would be by people at Oak Ridge who knew how to build centrifuges. 1/
Gordon and Miller wrote that the intel community agreed that the aluminum tubes were for centrifuges. I had reservations, but figured that that must include those Oak Ridge folks.
It turned out it didn't. Long story short, it was driven by an obsessive CIA analyst. 2/
Gordon and Miller presented that analysis as God's Own Truth. They never mentioned that DOE - the Oak Ridge people - and State's IRB dissented. That was all the difference in the world. 3/
The predominant reaction has been "Okay, if it's not a directed microwave weapon, then it must be something else." Many suggestions have been offered. 2/
But that reaction contains a number of assumptions.
1) That there is a defined set of symptoms comprising the Havana Syndrome.
2) That those symptoms are being caused by a malign agent.
3) That the agent is using a directed-energy weapon. 3/
Back when I started contracting for environmental restoration, I was surprised to receive bids from "Beltway bandits" who had no experience in what they were proposing. 1/
Colleagues explained that this was common practice. If they won the contract, they would then subcontract to others, while retaining their percentage. 2/
The Beltway bandits knew how to work the system, how to write the proposals better than firms that actually knew how to do the work.
My preference was for the firms that actually knew how to do the work. 3/
General Gustave Perna was nominated by President Trump to be COO for Operation Warp Speed on May 18. He was confirmed by the Senate on July 2. A month and a half. 1/ army.mil/article/235694… defense.gov/Newsroom/Relea…
"[H]is team did not have a clear understanding of why these delays were happening"????? 2/
Perna should have available to him project management printouts of the vaccine transport, the centers to which it is going and the plans for distribution from there, the personnel available, and the locations for vaccinations. 3/