Thread by @Ayjchan

“No one wants you to find a virus in their country,” Dr. Wang said.
wsj.com/articles/bat-s…

Having difficulty following this timeline:
December 30, 2019.
Shi is called by WIV director to investigate novel SARSrCoV causing atypical pneumonia in Wuhan.
Hops on train back to Wuhan.
Goes through her lab’s records. “I had not slept a wink for days.”
scientificamerican.com/article/how-ch…

Within first days of Jan 2020, the WIV had obtained the full genome of SARS2. They were investigating the ICU cases, worried about SARS2 evolving to become more transmissible among humans. They knew little about the virus, source or specific treatment.
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…

The @WSJ article tells us, around the same time, early-mid Jan 2020, Dr Wang "used public transportation and took taxis. He went with Dr. Shi and other friends to restaurants. “The best restaurants were crowded""

These are veteran SARS researchers.

Wuhan locked down on Jan 22.

@WSJ After this pandemic, I sure as hell am not getting on public transit and going to crowded places if I hear about another novel SARS-related coronavirus outbreak in my city.

@WSJ Not to mention if you already have a full genome and suspect the new SARS-related virus is likely human-to-human transmissible and can land victims in the ICU.
pbs.org/wgbh/frontline…

Other countries like Thailand had begun screening passengers from Wuhan in Jan 2020.

"Publicly the Chinese government was still saying that cases were linked to the Huanan market and there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission.
But Thai health officials were skeptical."

They picked up on a potential case on Jan 8, no exposure to the Huanan seafood market, confirmed positive for bat SARS-like coronavirus, and by Jan 13, first confirmed Covid-19 case outside China.

Pointing to generalized spreading of the virus in Wuhan.
pbs.org/wgbh/frontline…

Meanwhile...
"“I was mixing with all the lab people,” Wang says. “We would go to a restaurant every night.”
Only when he left on 18 January did he realize how serious the situation was."
sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/b…

The @nytimes also has a photo from Dr Wang with colleagues from the WIV (21 people) at a restaurant outing on Jan 15, 2020.
nytimes.com/2021/06/14/wor…

There is a lot more to unpack from the WSJ article.

"The scientists are a tightknit bunch."

“You have to operate from trust” - Dr. Jonna Mazet

"Dr. Wang said he would be astonished if Dr. Shi were involved in a political coverup."

I'm not saying any virologists are conspirators. I just want to point out that friendships, collegial kinship, working together to protect the world from the next pandemic can influence a person's perception of whether their colleague could be compromised even in a dictatorship.

One more thing to clear up:

With SARS1 - 2 decades ago, much less sophisticated and rapid tech - March 24, 2003 suggestion that outbreak could be caused by a coronavirus.

By May 2003, market sampled, several species of SARS-infected animals found.
science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/ea…

By Oct 2003, serological studies had been conducted across populations of interest, determining that animal traders in Guangdong had high seroprevalence to SARS despite not having been diagnosed with SARS or atypical pneumonia during the SARS epidemic. cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/m…

Within 7 months of having a suggestion that a coronavirus might be behind the 2003 SARS epidemic, Chinese scientists had independently found potential intermediate hosts and evidence pointing to SARS-like viruses frequently circulating in their animal trading community.

Reminder: That was before next-generation sequencing was even invented.

When SARS broke out again in late 2003, tracking down the SARS-infected animals and coworkers was even faster - within the week.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

"When possible SARS was diagnosed in the waitress on January 2, 2004, serum, throat and rectal swabs were obtained from all 6 palm civets at the restaurant.. Serum samples from employees of the restaurant were obtained on January 4."

So when people say it could take decades to find the zoonotic source of SARS2, my question is: What's holding you up?

The lack of modern technology?

The lack of info in a country (where Wuhan is a modern city) where people are surveilled within an inch of their life?

One thing that bothers me is that experts who should know the difference between spending years hunting down the bat reservoir vs spending days to months finding the intermediate host/proximal animal source - have not been making this distinction clear to the public.

I've had other scientists come to me asking if it really took a decade to find the animal source in the SARS epidemic of 2003.

No, it took 2 months.

Every time a new paper comes out saying "look, we found more bat viruses that kinda look like SARS2", some scientists and journalists report it as if they've found some clue to the proximal origin of SARS2.

Actually still doesn't tell us how the virus got to Wuhan.

Actually still no sign of an intermediate host or proximal animal source of the virus. 1.5+ years post-detection of outbreak.

Actually still no dispositive evidence to support or rule out either natural or lab origin of the virus.