@BretWeinstein is either lying or just ignorant & dangerously irresponsible.
There's a body of work on why effective but not "perfect" vaccines greatly reduce variant emergence that includes SARS-CoV-2 specifically. I'm happy to cite a few dozen, but let's dig into the basics.
There's a body of work on why effective but not "perfect" vaccines greatly reduce variant emergence that includes SARS-CoV-2 specifically. I'm happy to cite a few dozen, but let's dig into the basics.
https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1413654756145475585
First, you have to think about "morphospace", all the genetic combinations possible for a given genome and their corresponding phenotypes like "virulence" and "pathogenicity".
Suppose SARS-CoV-2 makes one mistake in copying for every 1000 bases it copies.
Suppose SARS-CoV-2 makes one mistake in copying for every 1000 bases it copies.
In the space of a "naive infection" (not vaccinated), the number of viruses produced can be 100,000,000,000 or more, and its genome is 30,000 bp long.
In a single naive individual, that's 3 trillion errors/mutations produced during course of infection.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
In a single naive individual, that's 3 trillion errors/mutations produced during course of infection.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Almost all of these will be lost or never transmitted to another person, so lost to evolutionary selection pressure... but the 1 in 100,000 that does escape has the potential to become an emergent variant over time.
Unless that transmission is interrupted...
Unless that transmission is interrupted...
If 0.1% of all virions are transmitted to others, we're selecting 1 in 1000 of our trillions of mutations to pass on to the population.
If 0.001% of all virions are transmitted to others, we've reduced the likelihood of rare variant transmission by 100 fold.
How can we do that?
If 0.001% of all virions are transmitted to others, we've reduced the likelihood of rare variant transmission by 100 fold.
How can we do that?
How can we do that? Anything that interrupts the chain of transmission: distancing, vaccines, hygiene, barriers... all reduce the total viral genome transfer in the population.
What Bret's ignoring or overlooking is the fundamental reduction in transmitted variants.
What Bret's ignoring or overlooking is the fundamental reduction in transmitted variants.
This is before we narrow in on vaccines specifically, which have two functions: reducing viral load (number of virions) and preventing a high percentage of transmission events.
I've heard this argument before: about condoms and HIV. Maybe condoms select for HIV that's more aggressive?!
Except preventing infection, whether by vaccine or condoms deployed on the large scale, reduces the opportunities for mutation to occur.
Except preventing infection, whether by vaccine or condoms deployed on the large scale, reduces the opportunities for mutation to occur.
My own work was on evolution of determinants of pathogenicity in the non-primate lentiviruses (EIAV, FIV, CAEV, etc.)
If you're interested in reading what actual experts (i.e. not Bret) have to say on this, a good starter is here:
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
If you're interested in reading what actual experts (i.e. not Bret) have to say on this, a good starter is here:
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
My final word on this:
Every virologist and public health scientist I have spoken to on this subject is of the opinion that vaccines are our best weapon to combat the emergence of dangerous variants.
Bret Weinstein is out of his field, and spreading dangerous misinformation.
Every virologist and public health scientist I have spoken to on this subject is of the opinion that vaccines are our best weapon to combat the emergence of dangerous variants.
Bret Weinstein is out of his field, and spreading dangerous misinformation.
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