Two small points re. ongoing debates over "popularism" and @davidshor-style arguments for Dem message discipline and selective issue moderation, in the spirit of reducing the propensity of folks to talk past each other:
1.) The context of polarized partisan parity + Dems' growing structural disadvantages under American political institutions seems to me central to the popularist case in specific strategic disputes, though in a way that underscores the rather grim limits of the implicit vision.
Polarization and competitive partisan strength turn contemporary elections into brutal games of inches, and Dems' growing structural problem means that *every extra vote they can possibly scrape up* matters existentially.
Given this, so the argument goes, the historically small proportion of swing voters doesn't make the task of winning them matter less--it matters more! "Because we might be dead in the next split second, maybe we gotta be extra careful what we do."
The common retort to popularism that aggregate opinion and esp. voting dynamics in a polarized era are *largely* fixed and immune to messaging and issue appeals is accurate but nonresponsive to this focus on marginal shifts. Shorites see Obama '12 as the goal, not Reagan '84.
2.) *So much* of the Shorite/popularist analysis should be read as aimed at activists, staffers, and funders in the para-Democratic progressive world. (Pols largely come in for direct criticism only when, like Warren '20, they're alleged to have been captured by those actors.)
They target activists and nonprofit pros both because they think it's regrettable to do advocacy ineffectively--see @mattyglesias's recent post on climate activism--AND because of an important if underexamined implicit premise about those actor's political agency & significance.
That premise is that, now much more than in the past, the rhetoric and behavior of party-aligned activists have ambient effects on pols' electoral performance independent of what the latter actually do or say.
I suspect there's real force to this claim--it tracks with the general nationalization of politics (press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book…) and comports with @daschloz and my argument about the pathologies of "hollow" parties dominated by headless paraparty networks (cambridge.org/core/books/can…).
But as far as I can tell the evidence for the *increasing* party-branding effects of such activism is circumstantial. I'd love to see some more direct and rigorous empirical study of the question (and if there's anything out there I'm missing, I'd love to know about it). /end

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Sam Rosenfeld

Sam Rosenfeld Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @sam_rosenfeld

13 May
Possibly an extremely obvious observation but: Notwithstanding enduring gripes about both-sides journalism, it’s striking how firmly mainstream media has refused to adopt a he-said-she-said neutrality frame for the 2020 election even as the GOP firms up its Trump commitments.
This is in keeping w: what were clearly consciously made Trump-era choices by outlets to resist the balance-over-accuracy trap on various stories involving brazen Trump lies. It’s a good thing! But it really is different from the pre-Trump pattern re big political controversies.
Obviously this only deepens the gulf of trust (forged by right-wing activists and elites) between conservative voters and mainstream journalism, and the solidifies the GOP’s epistemic closure.
Read 5 tweets
3 Nov 20
Election day treacle:

We’re looking at turnout rates unseen either in 60 yrs or a century. Under daunting circumstances, millions have mobilized in new and old ways. The work people have put in has been staggering. And if you zoom out to take in the whole Trump presidency…
…you see an ongoing historic civic flourishing in politics. The Women’s March & rolling demonstrations in 2017. The organizing behind the record-setting 2018 midterms. The emergence of the socialist left in electoral and Dem programmatic politics. The BLM protests this summer…
These are distinct efforts with varying goals and plenty of robust conflict between and amongst them. But they’re also all the broadly progressive work of Americans exercising old civic muscles to build a better country. It’s inspiring and I’m very grateful.
Read 5 tweets
18 Sep 20
1. A typically great piece that also links to this recent deep-dive by @dylanmatt on the poli sci literature on canvassing and gotv: vox.com/21366036/canva…
2. One piece of background context to pieces like these is that a cohort of young progressive data people, of whom @davidshor is a leading example, have for a few years now been promulgating the notion that door-knocking is a lib indulgence and inefficient vote-getter.
3. Their arguments had begun to influence the thinking of journalists in their orbit but hadn't quite coalesced as a new public-facing #Take to counter the narrative of an Obama-'08-birthed renaissance of Dem field ops. Then God decided to launch a natural experiment via Covid.
Read 7 tweets
23 Jul 20
I'm just a simple country professor but it seems to me that both sides of Letter Discourse have reached consensus that "free speech" & abstract procedural principles are red herrings here--boundaries of socially (rather than legally) acceptable opinion will ALWAYS be drawn…(1/6)
…and the real debate is just the substantive one re where those boundaries should fall. But having conceded that, both sides largely stick to arguments in the abstract! It's what trips TCW up w/ Chotiner--but it frankly can also come off as a dodge on the anti-Letter side. (2/6)
The key to the David Shor case is that, by the accounts I've seen, pressure to fire him came from clients & Civis colleagues who shared the *sincere* & earnest belief that his Wasow tweets were racist. This sincere view also led to his expulsion from a political listserve. (3/6 )
Read 6 tweets
1 Sep 19
I’m trying to enjoy my sabbatical this semester but Dan Crenshaw keeps forcing me to relive the one set of Intro to American Politics discussions that invariably gets me genuinely and unprofessionally aggravated.
As a sidenote, part of the multidimensional aggravating-ness of these discussions is that these people aren't even mounting this (horrible) defense on behalf of the right institution.
The EC does give a somewhat disproportionate voice to small state residents, but by far the most significant driver of distortion and of pop-vote/EC mismatches is the winner-take-all allocation of electoral votes everywhere except for ME and NE.
Read 7 tweets
17 Jan 19
.@daschloz and my op-ed (nytimes.com/2019/01/15/opi…) appeared in the NYT along w/ this incisive @DouthatNYT piece (nytimes.com/2019/01/16/opi…). Both concern drawing cordons sanitaires. Douthat (avoiding false equivalences) tackles both left & right, while we only discuss the latter.
That prompts me to offer a claim about a deep asymmetry in democratic politics: Though the dangers of extremism and the value of parties as temporizers are common to all political persuasions, they are not shared equally among them.
Since con parties tend to both represent dominant social groups AND ally w/ econ elites who may have reason to fear majoritarian politics, their susceptibility to extremist influence shld usually pose more potent, system-destabilizing threats (ethnonationalism, authoritarianism).
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(