New @BrightLineWatch on state of US democracy brightlinewatch.org/still-miles-ap…
-Experts: Overturning pop. vote key risk; legal changes to enable are grave/serious threats
-Public: Secession support ↑ in partisan strongholds but info on official AZ recount ↑ R trust more than "audit"
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Hardball tactics like gerrymandering, packing the Supreme Court or blocking nominees, voter suppression, abolishing the filibuster, adding new states, or refusing to certify election results attract little support from public or experts (w/few exceptions) brightlinewatch.org/still-miles-ap…
Experts expect hardball tactics to be used more frequently, rating obstruction of Supreme Court nominations as highly likely and refusal to certify popular vote totals as a likely outcome as well. Hardball tactics more favored by Ds are seen as less likely brightlinewatch.org/still-miles-ap…
Thread *every reporter* should read. The seemingly "alarming news is actually perfectly consistent with the Pfizer vaccine being no less effective against Delta than it was against old school covid."
Agree state subversion seems more plausible than Congress overturning a result itself. And the fact that we're debating how exactly election subversion might take place underscores the threat. Not likely or certain, but unacceptably high.
Worse scenarios are possible. A pivotal state leg dismisses a result it doesn't like based on dubious fraud allegations and sends its own electors + Supreme Court refuses to intervene, saying states decide how to allocate electors. Then Congress just says it's following the Court
I agree the votes aren't there in Congress to overturn an election on Four Seasons Landscaping-level grounds right now, but a veneer of plausibility and/or a shift in the status quo could change the calculations dramatically.