Thread by @CrabbBrendan

A thread on our case @BurnetInstitute for why Sydney should move to Stage 4 restrictions without delay 1/18

First, as the Premier says, the only option for NSW (and all of Australia) is to get back to #COVIDZero while we get the country vaccinated. 2/18

Measures in place are keeping things in check. Tens of thousands of cases have been averted; much death & suffering prevented bc of the actions of NSW gov & people. 3/18 infogram.com/1plrmxlq5w1k19…

Since the outbreak begun on the 16th June, Sydney has implemented two forms of ‘lockdown’; one on June 26 and one on July 9 as shown on the attached table. 4/18

On this table for comparison are the measures used during Vic’s 2nd wave; so-called Stage 3 and Stage 4, plus the settings for mandated masks. 5/18

It’s important to note that the Vic 2nd wave is the only example in Australia of controlling a large community metro outbreak using ‘lockdown’ measures 6/18

This example allows the impact of 3 distinct settings to be assessed: Stage 3, Stage 3 plus mandated masks and Stage 4 plus mandated masks. 7/18

As shown, all settings impacted growth with mandatory masks surprisingly effective & Stage 4 plus masks the best – note delay from implementation to impact 8/18 medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

For the last week, Syd has been using conditions very similar to Victorian Stage 3, plus mandating masks indoors. 9/18

Recently, @burnetinstitute released computer simulations on the impact of Vict Stage 3 and Stage 4 restrictions on a Sydney-like Delta outbreak 10/18
burnet.edu.au/news/1465_like…

Our modelling shows that Stage 3 plus masks would hold things in check (yellow line) but that Stage 4 restrictions are needed to bring things to a close in a month or so (blue line) 11/ 18

The impact of Sydney’s current restrictions will only become clear in the next few days as there is about a week delay from implementation to effect. So far it’s as predicted 12/18

Hopefully current settings will do more than drive a slow decline but our modelling, and that of several other groups, suggests that’s unlikely. 13/18

We recommend going to Stage 4-like restrictions immediately. As painful as it is, there is greater certainty of returning to an open society soon if this is done 14/18

Importantly, we don’t know which elements of Stage 3 or Stage 4 are essential & which can be discarded. Are masks outdoors necessary, what about the 5km radius etc? 15/18

Because of that, we recommend implementing Stage 4 as a package, as close to intact as possible. Anything else is a best guess rather than evidence-based. 16/18

Sadly, until vaccinated, no other way to beat what is an increasingly more infectious virus. Deep community engagement & support for all most at risk essential. 17/18

Thanks Margaret Hellard, Nick Scott, Romesh Abeysuria, Stelliana Goutzamanis, Allan Saul, Amanda Rotberg, Tracy Parish, Suman Majumdar, Mike Toole & @KnowC19_Burnet 18/end