1/5
The UK 10-day self-isolation period is highly disruptive to industry.
But it may also be counter-productive in combating Covid-19.
The UK 10-day self-isolation period is highly disruptive to industry.
But it may also be counter-productive in combating Covid-19.
2/ 5
We know that Covid-19 incubation periods vary hugely, with some illnesses appearing 2 or 3 days after exposure, but others taking 14 days or more.
Some of this variation is likely to be related to the properties of the particular “isolate” (ie strain) involved.
We know that Covid-19 incubation periods vary hugely, with some illnesses appearing 2 or 3 days after exposure, but others taking 14 days or more.
Some of this variation is likely to be related to the properties of the particular “isolate” (ie strain) involved.
3/ 5
It is also likely that strains with short incubation periods are more pathogenic. This is the basis of the “virulence-transmission trade-off hypothesis” and has been proposed for several viruses including influenza and myxomatosis.
It is also likely that strains with short incubation periods are more pathogenic. This is the basis of the “virulence-transmission trade-off hypothesis” and has been proposed for several viruses including influenza and myxomatosis.
4/5
Track and Trace often takes a few days to identify contacts of infectious individuals.
During this period the more pathogenic, fast-acting strains may spread, whereas the milder, slow-burning strains may be stopped by self-isolation.
Track and Trace often takes a few days to identify contacts of infectious individuals.
During this period the more pathogenic, fast-acting strains may spread, whereas the milder, slow-burning strains may be stopped by self-isolation.
5/5
It might be much better for both industry and healthcare to reduce the self-isolation period to, say, 5 days.
This effect may partly explain the current unusual, very rapid, summer surge in the UK.
It might be much better for both industry and healthcare to reduce the self-isolation period to, say, 5 days.
This effect may partly explain the current unusual, very rapid, summer surge in the UK.
reference
doi.org/10.1080/215055…
doi.org/10.1080/215055…
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