Huge news: pboc white paper on china’s #cbdc just out! Expect a big thread after I’ve had enough coffee to read and process it… pbc.gov.cn/WZWSREL2dvdXRv…
1/biggest deal in here is confirmation that foreigners can use the digital RMB in CN. Not sure whether they can leave the country with eCNY still in wallet...
Also confirmed major eCNY use at Beijing Olympics with digital wallets, wearable payments tools built into outfits, etc.
2/PBOC reveals stark decline of cash & cards for payments: bank cards used in only 7% of transactions, cash 23%, and mobile payments a whopping 66% (full stats only in Mandarin version)
YET: physical cash stays. Promises never to eliminate it, as long as there is demand
3/After flip flopping, PBOC confirms eCNY will be direct central bank liability, contradicting former PBOC Gov Zhou Xiaochuan who said it would not be. This is huge, b/c making direct digital gov liability avail to public is big step with risks of deposit flight to CBDC, etc.
4/Promise to lower payment costs, but fee structure is left open. PBOC won't charge the banks/Ali/Tencent for the infrastructure, and they can't charge consumers to buy/sell eCNY, but digital wallets presumably can still charge merchants some fee to accept payments.
5/International: they say domestic...for now. Will expand, but promise to protect monetary sovereignty of other countries (read, no forced RMB'ization) and follow their rules on capital controls, data privacy, etc. They clearly expect big influence on cross-CBDC pymnt in future
6/Who's included? All the big banks are both operators and helping R&D, while Tencent's WeBank and Ali's MyBank are only listed as R&D rartners. Still, expect main way eCNY is used in future to be as option in Alipay/WeChat, but one the gov pushes them towards
7/How big are the pilots? They've handled 70m transactions totaling 35b RMB, with 10 million users. They are also using smart contracts already, including as expiring red envelopes to spur consumption (have to be spent or lost)
8/Technical details? PBOC will control the "whole life cycle" of eCNY, managing the chain of transactions that forms the ledger. Transaction records will be hashed so that only PBOC has the whole list--banks and wallets on system can only see pieces
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Thread on big news from Biden Admin today: revoking ad hoc mess of TikTok and WeChat executive orders and replacing with a more consistent, comprehensive framework to evaluate foreign app security.
First major piece of news to me is quite provocative TBH official designation of China as a "foreign adversary." It is the only one mentioned, though the rules will extend beyond China it's clear the target whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Second, this is about a lot more than just Chinese apps: the order requires a report on risks from sale and transfer of personal/sensitive data, which faces virtually zero regs today, a gaping loophole in approach of data protection through CFIUS, as @SammSacks has also argued
Quick thread on #digitalyuan privacy issues: privacy protections from merchants, tech, etc. look quite good (from gov is diff story). In US, you give all credit card credentials to anyone you pay, trusting they won't keep charging you or lose/sell credentials 1/n
2/n These in US are "pull payments," you auth someone to pull money from your acct. Privacy & security in US w/these *has* gotten better with Apply pay and chip cards that encrypt info to protect your identity and card info. eCNY is different, allowing you to "push" payments
3/n push payments like in eCNY can be less convenient, but they can give consumers more control over how much and when charged, and system can ensure your identity and sensitive data are NOT shared with merchants, better protecting privacy
Thread on Invisible China: Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's illuminating and scary deep dive into rural China's ills and stark inequality. No matter how bad you think it is, it's worse there---more like a developing country than a global superpower. 1/n
2/Rozelle rolled up his sleeves to understand the CN most only see from plane or train windows. Issues in health and education, bringing down human capital of 300m rural Chinese, could trap it in middle income status.
Think future like Mexico/Turkey now, not Korea/Taiwan
3/Most focus on impressive elite universities and high schools topping int'l rankings, but CN average education levels are abysmal.
Only 30% of China's working age pop completed high school--last place for all middle income countries, worse than many poor countries!
One thing I've been thinking about recently is that for Chinese firms, an IPO can be dangerous. Why? Attracting the wrong sort of attention. A quick thread with two examples (Ant is obviously one) 1/n
Ex 1: Qudian, a high interest small loan company that raised nearly $1b USD list October 2017, company then was only 3 years old. It had 7m borrowers and $5.6b in loans at the time of IPO. The secret to its success? Partnership with Alipay, whose user base turbocharged growth 2/n
Chinese authorities were aware so-called "cash loans" (like payday loans in the US) were a fast-growing business w/lot of risk and rampant abusive practices, but it was not until the IPO disclosures that they realized just how big it already was. So they slammed on the brakes 3/n
A quick thread on today's big new additions to the @CommerceGov entity list, why they may backfire, and why will be hard to roll back: 1/n
The main firms that can now no longer buy US tech or goods are SMIC (China's main semiconductor manufacturer)--but only for the most advanced semi tech, DJI (world-leading drone company), a big state construction and shipbuilding company, some in biotech, and universities 2/n
Commerce argues that all are acting against US broadly defined nat sec/foreign policy interests, from Civ/Mil fusion and Xinjiang to South China Sea. You can see the whole list and rationales here public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2020-28031.pdf 3/n
Thread: Adding Ant to the entity list is a terrible idea.
If the bar to harsh US actions against a CN company is simply global success and innovation, USG plays into and strengthens the CN hardliner view that it US just wants to take CN down scmp.com/news/world/uni…
Note the lack of real national security justification to give this action ant real legitimacy. No sanctions violations like ZTE/Huawei, and Ant isn’t actively going after US users, so “sensitive data” on Americans is bogus. Alipay is accepted in US but mainly for CN tourists.
any impact on Ant would prob be symbolic. I’m not aware of any major
reliance on US tech/products (except dev tools for Android and iOS, which may or may not fall under entity list—any experts on this know?) IPO still goes on, it expands internationally, and US controls look weak