Boom. Consumers stepped it up and out in June with retail sales surprising many on the upside. Sales moved 0.6% higher instead of further in the red, despite shortages of vehicles which pushed vehicle sales down in June. Sales ex vehicles surged 1.3% in June.
Consumers rushed to traditional department stores, clothing retailers, health & beauty stores & restaurants & bars. They bought luggage, clothing, shoes to fill it & makeup to adorn newly unmasked faces. Online spending bounced back as we will search online to find what we want.
Spending at gas stations surged on higher prices at the pump & the return of us all to the roads to commute & go on vacation. Sadly, the surge in gas prices are upping the wages that low wage workers need to keep take home pay steady or rising. Another hurdle for small biz.
Traditional department stores have seen traffic and spending surge as big box retailers and warehouse clubs who benefitted from quarantines suffered another month of losses.
Spending on things that made our cooped up existences over the last year easier such as spending at home and garden stores, furniture & exercise equipment to remodeling homes for offices & online schooling & in-home gyms. Outliers electronic & appliances, where backlogs built.
The control for retail sales, which feeds into GDP data, surged 1.2% during the month. Consumer spending which includes travel and tourism easily jumped at a double digit pace in the second quarter.

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More from @DianeSwonk

16 Jul
Opening up is hard to do. Been taking to a lot of business that have opened doors on offices to bring people back. Some have reported uptick in office infections because people are not honest about vaccines. Prompted reset on vaccines. Debating proof of vax to shed mask indoors.
Some debating full vax requirements to return to offices. This is more rare. Others reporting surge in stress among those who return. This is to be expected and many companies are trying to be as flex as possible - others are not.
Another issue is lack of support services in city centers. Hard to find a place to get a lunch, fast or slow. Some offices catering in because of surge of closings in the areas where their offices were. This seems to be a very big city issue.
Read 5 tweets
15 Jul
I have to admit. I think much of the inflation we are seeing is transitory. Also think some could linger. Shelter will show up w/ a lag. Y/Y comparisons get much easier - inf measures get much lower - as we move into 2022. BUT, I remember high inflation & what it did to rates.
It was a nightmare. There are a lot of Fed presidents who worried ab inflation returning w a vengeance in 2010s. They were wrong. Not clear the lessons of 2010s apply today as much as Doves believe given how different post pandemic economy is turning out to be.
But, this is really important. It does look like a step up on price levels rather than the start of a vicious cycle. Hard for workers to maintain the moment in the🌞the pandemic has delivered many after the storm. Key is to watch where the 🔥 is concentrated.
Read 8 tweets
14 Jul
@federalreserve Powell’s testimony today sticks to his script on patience in policy, arguing that the current surge in inflation & labor market friction are likely transitory. BUT, the door is left open to changes in policy if the 🔥 we are fails to dissipate.
He cites the July Monetary Policy Report, which has provide an in-depth perspective on how the Fed is thinking about inflation and the labor market. It is available here federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…

The Fed is sees bottlenecks abating & labor supply to ⬆️ w/school openings
The uncertainty is greatest around inflation expectations & whether they can remain anchored enough to allow inflation to abate or whether they will move even higher. This is where the Fed would pivot and hit the brakes more aggressively if their analysis is wrong.
Read 6 tweets
14 Jul
🔥@federalreserve Chair Powell will be sitting in the hot seat on Capital Hill today. Inflation is political and Congress will be looking for a scapegoat. Look for him to emphasize the Fed’s willingness to pivot, taper and raise rates sooner than previously thought if need be.
Much of the surge in prices we are seeing are pandemic induced but could linger. The second shoe on shelter costs, which is could mean higher sustained inflation, has yet to drop. Many within the Fed system are ready to taper asset purchases by year end.
Hawks among the ranks of the presidents, who have been pushing for 2022 rate hikes, will also gain a lot of leverage in voting on rate hikes next year. Powell is well aware of this and will be hedging his comments more than he has in previous testimony on the Fed’s patience.
Read 9 tweets
16 Jun
@federalreserve will acknowledge stronger growth and inflation today, while underscoring disappointment at pace of recovery in employment. Not ready to raise rates yet but watch for some creep in estimates among participants at meeting toward 2023.
Chair Powell will stick to Fed’s commitment for more improvement in employment before shift in policy. He will also note there is evidence a good portion of inflation flare is temporary. The uncertainty will be about the portion that tied to shelter and wages and could linger.
Powell has been reluctant to put a time frame on what he considers *transitory.* Others on the Fed have been less tentative and they are clearly looking for a shift toward cooling in inflation by 4Q:21. The worst of the base effects - tumbling prices a year ago - hit in 2Q:21.
Read 11 tweets
15 Jun
Retail sales slide 0.5% from April in May on slowdown in vehicle sales. Level of spending remains on track to post a double digit gain in 2Q, despite set back. Supply constrained on vehicles, while surging prices souring demand.
Big pivot to spending to see and be seen. Increase in department store, specialty clothing, health and beauty - can’t find my favorite lipstick - and at restaurant and bars.
Dynamic in spending of food and drinking place really important. We estimate that we have exceeded the pre-pandemic peak hit in Feb 2020 in May by 1.3%, after adjusting for inflation. BUT EMPLOYMENT STILL DOWN STAGGERING 1.5 M.
Read 9 tweets

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