Thread by @Pinboard

Thanks so much to TechCheck for having me on! Let me expand a bit on what I think the structural China problem is. The country is basically a theocracy, but since Deng's time it has been ruled pragmatically by rulers who were willing to interpret the faith quite broadly indeed

https://twitter.com/CNBCTechCheck/status/1416064661380796416

In this framing, the Chinese state religion is Marxism/Leninism/Mao Zedong Thought. Marxism of course doesn't think of itself in those terms—it claims to be a scientific theory of history—but treating it as a religious faith gets you to interesting conclusions, so let's do it.

Until recently the modus vivendi with China was that the CCP could try however it wanted to explain that it was still a Communist Party domestically, but in its external relationships the country would fully participate in global capitalism and not get all weird on us about it

However in Xi, China has a true believer as paramount leader. Xi's vision of national greatness is a communist Chinese state that makes flexible use of the tools of capitalism, but never loses sight of the ultimate goal of surpassing it. There are two mortal threats to his vision

The first mortal threat is any form of political pluralism. Xi understands that allowing political dissent in China, and therefore a historically honest appraisal of the CCP, would mean the end of the one-party rule. Put crudely, it's because the CCP killed an awful lot of people

The second mortal threat is the existence of an independent Taiwan, a prosperous, democratic Chinese society that is doing just great without all the ideological and historical baggage that Xi argues was necessary for mainland China to reach its present level of prosperity.

When your whole thesis is that only the Communist Party can end a century of national humiliation and subjugation, and there's a thriving democratic society of your countrymen next door proving you are full of shit, this is not a comfortable situation to be dictatoring in.

So the key thing to understand is that Xi believes he has a scientific theory of history (however baroque that has become), a window of opportunity to make China a great power en route to its final state as communist utopia, and that China without the CCP means anarchy and ruin

Xi's crushing of a free society in Hong Kong proves that ideological goals come first. In his worldview, you can't even meaningfully separate economics and ideology. And Xi is willing to pay any price in the pursuit of consolidating power, since he knows history is on his side

When you're dealing with a theocrat, you need to at least read the holy texts to understand their decisionmaking. But too much of our discourse about China is still stuck in "time for some GAME THEORY" framings of great power rivalry and economic competition.

The guy grew up in a cave! His family was burned by the Cultural Revolution, he experienced the chaos of Maoism firsthand, and yet he still became a devout believer. That's an interesting arc. If the guy were Wahhabi or a Scientologist or something we'd be all over it.

So China is ruled by a true believer with a pressing sense of urgency (national greatness to be attained by 2049, the 100 year anniversary of the PRC). He knows what he stands for. The question is whether we're willing to make an equally vigorous defense of freedom and pluralism

And the place that will be decided is Taiwan. The crushing of Hong Kong means the end of any hope of annexation under some kind of "One Country, Two Systems" arrangement. The existence of a free Taiwan is intolerable to the CCP. Any attack on Taiwan should be intolerable to us

It's kind of ironic that Xi's belief in historical inevitability makes a completely avoidable and unnecessary conflict with Taiwan inevitable, at least while he's in power. But that's the road we're on, and we need to stop deluding ourselves that the CCP will be our friend again

What the West owes China is a clear and unequivocal articulation of our values: equality, democracy, pluralism, freedom, and the rule of law. There are over a billion people in China being denied these fundamental rights, and when we fail to speak for them, we diminish ourselves.

To the extent that standing up for our basic beliefs kicks globalization in the nuts, we're going to have to accept it and find ways to work around it. We can't make who we *are* contingent on what's economically beneficial. Xi understands that, but I'm not sure our leaders do.