Thread by @dwallacewells

"Climate change: Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity." This, from the BBC, is just the latest in a series of recent articles with scientists worrying recent events are literally off-the-charts of models. A thread of blistering quotes. (1/x) bbc.com/news/science-e…

"We should be alarmed because the IPCC models are just not good enough," Dame Julia Slingo of the @metoffice says. "(We need) an international centre to deliver the quantum leap to climate models that capture the fundamental physics that drive extremes."

@metoffice "Unless we do that we will continue to underestimate the intensity/frequency of extremes and the increasingly unprecedented nature of them."

@metoffice "It’s is impossible to say how much of an emergency we are in because we don’t have the tools to answer the question," Oxford's Tim Palmer says.

"We need a commitment and vision with the magnitude of CERN if we are to build climate models that can accurately simulate the extremes of climate like the Canadian heatwave."

"The obvious acceleration of the breakdown of our stable climate simply confirms that - when it comes to the climate emergency - we are in deep, deep s***!" says UCL's @ProfBillMcGuire. "Many in the climate science community would agree, in private if not in public."

@ProfBillMcGuire "The IPCC's reports tend to be both conservative and consensus. They’re conservative, because insufficient attention has been given to tipping points, feedback loops and outlier predictions; consensus, because more extreme scenarios have tended to be marginalised."

@ProfBillMcGuire "Plenty of peer-reviewed papers not addressed in IPCC documentation present far more pessimistic scenarios. There is no reason why a consensus viewpoint should be right, and we need to be preparing for the worst, even if we still hope for the best."

@ProfBillMcGuire "The executive summary has to be agreed and signed off by 193 countries; reports are every 6-7 years and because of the time they take to write they are usually 1-2 years behind the literature," @ProfMarkMaslin says.

@ProfBillMcGuire @ProfMarkMaslin "Are they still fit for purpose - yes, as they provide an essential service linking scientists, social scientists and economists and provide baseline estimates of what will happen. Are they fit for dealing with a rapidly evolving climate and political landscape - No!”