"The problem is that solar panels generate lots of electricity in the middle of sunny days, frequently more than what’s required, driving down prices—sometimes even into negative territory." technologyreview.com/2021/07/14/102…
"The state’s average solar wholesale prices have fallen 37% relative to the average electricity prices for other sources since 2014, according to the Breakthrough Institute analysis."
"The state’s SB 100 law, passed in 2018, requires all of California’s electricity to come from “renewable and zero-carbon resources” by 2045. By that point, some 60% of the state’s electricity could come from solar, based on a California Energy Commission model."
"The Breakthrough study estimates that the value of solar–or the wholesale average price relative to other sources–will fall by 85% at that point, decimating the economics of solar farms, at least as California’s grid exists today."

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More from @dwallacewells

16 Jul
"Climate change: Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity." This, from the BBC, is just the latest in a series of recent articles with scientists worrying recent events are literally off-the-charts of models. A thread of blistering quotes. (1/x) bbc.com/news/science-e…
"We should be alarmed because the IPCC models are just not good enough," Dame Julia Slingo of the @metoffice says. "(We need) an international centre to deliver the quantum leap to climate models that capture the fundamental physics that drive extremes."
@metoffice "Unless we do that we will continue to underestimate the intensity/frequency of extremes and the increasingly unprecedented nature of them."
Read 10 tweets
16 Jul
"While no paleoclimate is the perfect analog for the future, there is a greater likelihood that the equilibrium future climate will bear more in common with the Miocene than with either the Pliocene or the Eocene." What did that look like? A thread (1/x) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
"Miocene conditions have proved difficult to reconcile with models. This implies either missing positive feedbacks in the models, a lack of knowledge of past climate forcings, or the need for re-interpretation of proxies, which might mitigate the model-data discrepancy."
"During the Miocene, including the Miocene Climatic Optimum, most proxy records indicate that pCO2 was near or moderately higher than modern values."
Read 8 tweets
13 Jul
Yesterday, I published a long piece on the still-under-appreciated age skew of COVID-19, which has helped vaccination already eliminate most of America's mortality risk. I didn't discuss detailed policy implications for kids and schools. A thread (1/x). nymag.com/intelligencer/…
To start: the age skew. The coronavirus is dramatically more deadly in the very old than the somewhat old, dramatically more deadly in the middle-aged than in young adults, for whom it is dramatically more deadly than in teenagers and children.
Even among those who are familiar with this pattern, the data is startling, since the risk divergence is so large. An 8-year-old, sick with COVID-19, has about one-ten-thousandth the risk of dying as an 88-year-old.
Read 25 tweets
13 Jul
"The first thing to know about the COVID-19 vaccines is that they’re doing exactly what they were designed and authorized to do." Great @KatherineJWu on the meaning of "breakthrough cases," most of which are not nearly as scary as they sound. theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
"Since the shots first started their rollout late last year, rates of COVID-19 disease have taken an unprecedented plunge among the immunized."
"We are, as a nation, awash in a glut of spectacularly effective vaccines that can, across populations, geographies, and even SARS-CoV-2 variants, stamp out the most serious symptoms of disease."
Read 4 tweets
12 Jul
With 90% of American seniors now fully vaccinated, the overwhelming majority of the country's mortality risk has been, simply, eliminated. Even given Delta and flatlining vaccination rates, it is already a very different pandemic now. A thread (1/x). nymag.com/intelligencer/…
There will be new cases, some of them severe and some leading ultimately to death. And there of course complications beyond death—even beyond hospitalization and severe disease.
If vaccination rates got close to 100%, we might be able to bring those numbers, in the future, close to zero. But even now we have probably eliminated 90% of all potential mortality from COVID-19. This makes it a very different kind of disease than we encountered last year.
Read 68 tweets
6 Jul
"In 1974, the CIA produced a study on 'climatological research as it pertains to intelligence problems.' It warned of a new era of weird weather, leading to political unrest and mass migration (which, in turn, would cause more unrest)." (1/x) theguardian.com/science/2021/j…
This week, the Guardian has published an excerpt from the great @alicebell's new climate book OUR GREATEST EXPERIMENT. A thread.
“'The climate change began in 1960,' the report’s first page informs us, 'but no one, including the climatologists, recognized it.'"
Read 12 tweets

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