New! June border numbers are out, and the diverging trends I've discussed re: families/kids and single adults have—once again—diverged!

After rising every month since May 2020, single adults apprehensions finally fell. Meanwhile, after falling for two months, families/kids rose.
Overall border apprehensions rose 3.4% from May to June, after having fallen by 1% from April to May.

However, as has been the case for months now, the vast majority of people apprehended after crossing the border continue to be expelled under Title 42.
Despite a rise in families coming to the border, there were still over 8,000 expulsions of family units last month.

As a result, it continues to be the case that significantly fewer families and kids are being allowed into the United States to seek asylum than in 2019.
If we look only at families, 41,945 family units were allowed into the US last month after crossing the border between ports of entry, and 8,070 were expelled back to Mexico.

That's compared to 57,358 in June 2019, of which several thousand were sent back to Mexico under MPP.
One big new trend we're seeing is the Biden administration finally opening up the ports of entry for people to seek asylum, which is also driving up overall "encounters"—which is why my previous charts were all apprehensions, not counting people who come through the ports.
Finally, some important context when looking at comparisons to 2006 or earlier.

In 2006, for every 3 migrants apprehended crossing the border, an additional 5 made it through successfully. Today, it's closer to 1.

The border is MUCH more secure today.
I'll end with this graph, which is one of the most important to understanding the numbers.

Title 42 led to unprecedented levels of repeat border crossings. As a result, even though apprehensions are now much higher than 2019, the number of PEOPLE who've crossed is still lower.

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More from @ReichlinMelnick

15 Jul
In a few minutes, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will be holding a hearing on several nominees, including the nominee for @ICEGov, Ed Gonzalez.

I'll be following the hearing in this thread (though not a full livetweet).…
The first nominee being considered is for the position of the Census Director, so we're not going to see ICE come up first.
Sheriff Gonzalez is now speaking and delivering his opening statement. He says that American has shown how a nation can not only survive, but thrive, through people coming to this country seeking a better life. He also emphasizes his belief that America is a nation of laws.
Read 43 tweets
29 Jun
Horrifying outcome in this case, written by the worst possible justice you could want to write an immigration case. I'm dreading a close read because I guarantee you there is terrible dicta in here.
Alito and Thomas have long been arguing that many detained immigrants shouldn't even have the right to challenge their detention in federal court. Sad to see Gorsuch join this wing of the court. Thankfully, they remain in the minority.
The end result of Guzman-Chavez is that the Supreme Court has once again upheld the government's right to lock certain immigrants in jails and prisons for months, if not years, while they fight their cases—without ever letting them ask a judge for bail.
Read 8 tweets
27 Jun
This is a really good article on the problems inside the Fort Bliss “emergency influx shelters,” and also shows the huge logistical problems they face. I was willing to cut them some slack back in March. I’m no longer willing to.
That said, I respectfully disagree with Mark Greenberg. UC arrivals were spiking no matter what Biden did on January 29, when an panel of Trump appointees lifted an injunction blocking UC expulsions. Because UC expulsions were done via plane, capacity would have been overwhelmed. Image
Because unaccompanied children were expelled via plane (Mexico wouldn't take them), ICE Air capacity capped possible expulsions.

That's why by October, before any court order was in place, with only 4,821 UC encountered, the Trump administration could only expel 67%. Image
Read 5 tweets
23 Jun
Looks like we've got a new Border Patrol Chief coming. This is a fairly normal action for a new administration, even though the role of Chief isn't a political, Senate-confirmed position. There have been 7 acting or permanent Chiefs in the last decade.…
As a side note—and my apologies to @NickMiroff here for singling him out for an extremely common error—it continues to be false that we are seeing a 20-year-high in "border crossings."

Border encounters =/= border crossings and crossings are likely closer to 2008/09 than 2000. Image
Thanks to a statistical model produced by the DHS Office of Immigration Statistics, I can chart DHS's estimate of border crossings from 2000-2018—not just apprehensions.

As the border became more secure, the gap between crossings and apprehensions has fallen significantly. Image
Read 4 tweets
21 Jun
I need everyone screaming about "open borders" to take a long, long look at this chart.

The actual number of people processed under normal immigration law (and not rapidly expelled back to Mexico) under Biden in 2021 never even hit half the number of people as in 2019.
For those curious about where this figure comes from, check out our fact sheet on Rising Border Encounters in 2021, which gives you the deep context most coverage is missing. There's a new update with May border data included and analyzed coming soon!…
The vast majority of people who are encountered by the Border Patrol continue to be expelled back to Mexico, while the number of people processed under normal immigration law (which could mean deportation, prosecution, or access to the asylum process) remains flat since March.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jun
This fictional chart from Ron Johnson strikes again. As I've explained repeatedly, this chart is MASSIVELY wrong, leaving out hundreds of thousands of apprehensions that occurred before Biden took office.

Here's the corrected version, showing the rising trend since last spring. Image
This now makes multiple members of Congress who are using a chart which @thehill has already debunked weeks ago thanks to my analysis. On Thursday, Rep. VanDrew also showed this chart—which, again, is *severely* misleading—at a DHS budget hearing.…
The Johnson/VanDrew/Boebert chart is doing well on right-wing media because it plays into this fiction that before Joe Biden took office, the border was somehow perfectly secured and no one was coming.

As I pointed out yesterday, that's a total fiction.
Read 6 tweets

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