The question I am asked most by journalists at the moment is how the public will behave after so-called ‘freedom day’.

A short thread.
1/9
It’s difficult to predict as there are multiple interacting factors.

First, the change in policy sends a very strong signal (to some people) that the pandemic is less serious
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rs…
2/9
In addition, the telegraphing of ‘freedom day’, as last year, has an effect in reducing adherence in the weeks leading up
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
3/9
While both of the above suggest that many people will stop wearing masks and distancing, the same ONS survey suggests that many people say they will carry on

4/9
Some of the factors driving continued mask-wearing and distancing include:

(1) public awareness of the rocketing rate of infections.

5/9
(2) Others’ behaviour.
The mask-wearing behaviour of our reference groups will be important in the extent to which we do the same. We infer risk and appropriateness from our peers’ actions – though this can go both ways, of course.
bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
6/9
(3) Organizations’ decisions and rules.
Similar to government policy, rules on masks by transport companies & shops can signal the seriousness of the situation.

Finally, evidence that the power of the mandate does work more through the social signal it sends than coercion:
7/9
1, A survey by the LSE in April 2020 found that social norms and a sense of 'we're all in it together' were stronger predictors of compliance with lockdown measures than legal compulsion blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
8/9
2. By January 2021, only ~1000 fines had been issued to people for not wearing face coverings.
independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n…
9/9

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More from @ProfJohnDrury

17 Jul
The mini #Hajj 2021 begins today - only 60,000 (Saudi based) pilgrims instead of the normal global gathering. Here's a thread of papers by @HaniNabulsi which examine the crowd psychology of the Hajj in normal times.
1/4
The negative effect of crowd density on reported safety was moderated by social identification with the crowd. Mediation analysis suggested that a reason for these moderation effects was the perception that other crowd members were supportive.

pnas.org/content/111/25…
2/4
Shared social identity with the crowd explained more of the variance in cooperation than both location & density. The link between shared social identity & giving support was stronger in the plaza than in the Mosque, with @DrAnneTempleton

royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.10…
3/4
Read 4 tweets
30 Jun
1/4
Tory MPs fear public fear: The MPs consider their own fear rational but that of the public irrational.

In fact there is a long history of elite fear of public panic...
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
2/4
The policy of not telling the public the facts about threats in case they panic has been a feature of guidance documents on emergency preparedness
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
3/4
But lack of information in an emergency actually creates anxiety. In trying to protect the public from fear, the authorities damage trust. In an emergency, people need practical information not emotional reassurance ('stay calm', 'don't panic')
festivalinsights.com/2018/07/respon…
Read 4 tweets
14 Mar
We studied what happens when police use unexpectedly indiscriminate and illegitimate force to remove peaceful protesters from a gathering
researchgate.net/publication/22…

tl;dr: participants became radicalized against the police
2.
After the police's violent eviction of protesters, participants saw themselves as similar to others fighting for justice, and as part of a wider movement:
researchgate.net/publication/25…
3.
While the violent eviction caused anger and distress, being part of a wider group was empowering and inspired further action
citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/downlo…
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan
I've just done 5 BBC radio interview in a row. Each one started with the question: what shall we do about all these people breaking the rules?

I said:

1. Public adherence to most of the required behaviours has been high throughout the pandemic blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/07…
2. Adherence tracks the regulations and goes up in lockdown periods

blogs.sussex.ac.uk/crowdsidentiti…
3. The latest mobility data suggest people are going out and about less than in the November lockdown:

Read 5 tweets
2 Jan
1/6
Short thread on relationship between rising infections/new variant, public behaviour, and policy announcements

tldr: Public behaviour really matters in mitigating infection spread; but it's not only behaviour that matters, since behaviour interacts with policy announcements
2/6
Public adherence to physical distancing regulations (2 metre rule) has always been high
BUT adherence has also varied by time, location, and demographic

gov.uk/government/pub…
3/6
The sharp rise in infections we are currently seeing has occurred at the same time as reductions in public adherence to physical distancing, which are associated with government announcements implying relaxation was possible.

blogs.sussex.ac.uk/crowdsidentiti…
Read 7 tweets
20 Sep 20
Self-isolation for #COVID__19 has always been a problem.

Resorting to coercion is a failure of public engagement and is a poor solution.

A thread of evidence and alternatives. 1/6

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-542219…
2/6
'Legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting'

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
3/6
Evidence from another type of public health emergency intervention - CBRN mass decontamination - suggests that coercion can have a backfire effect, leading to resistance not engagement

Holly Carter @EPR_HPRU @DrRichardAmlot @ProfRJWWilliams

emerald.com/insight/conten…
Read 6 tweets

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