Thread by @ProfJohnDrury

The question I am asked most by journalists at the moment is how the public will behave after so-called ‘freedom day’.

A short thread.
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It’s difficult to predict as there are multiple interacting factors.

First, the change in policy sends a very strong signal (to some people) that the pandemic is less serious
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rs…
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In addition, the telegraphing of ‘freedom day’, as last year, has an effect in reducing adherence in the weeks leading up
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
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While both of the above suggest that many people will stop wearing masks and distancing, the same ONS survey suggests that many people say they will carry on

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Some of the factors driving continued mask-wearing and distancing include:

(1) public awareness of the rocketing rate of infections.

https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1415985683118841856

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(2) Others’ behaviour.
The mask-wearing behaviour of our reference groups will be important in the extent to which we do the same. We infer risk and appropriateness from our peers’ actions – though this can go both ways, of course.
bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
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(3) Organizations’ decisions and rules.
Similar to government policy, rules on masks by transport companies & shops can signal the seriousness of the situation.

Finally, evidence that the power of the mandate does work more through the social signal it sends than coercion:
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1, A survey by the LSE in April 2020 found that social norms and a sense of 'we're all in it together' were stronger predictors of compliance with lockdown measures than legal compulsion blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
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2. By January 2021, only ~1000 fines had been issued to people for not wearing face coverings.
independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n…
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