How single dose vaccinated infections and the unvaccinated conceivably combine to make stopping covid harder:
1. Someone with a single dose of Pfizer or (more likely) AZ gets covid. 2. Their body mounts a half-assed vaccine-learned (based off original variant) response.
1/x
2. (continued) The “half” vaccinated person gets some protection but not enough to quickly shut down the virus and they end up being symptomatic and transmissible to others. They’ve also “trained” the virus to fight the vaccine’s half-assed response.
2/x
3. They give their trained virus to someone unvaccinated. Unvaccinated body has no training against the virus so it goes like wildfire. This person ends up being a vector for a super charged vaccine-trained infection that can be given to even fully vaccinated.
3/x
So this speculative but makes evolutionary sense. We know that viruses evolve and if you weaken a species, whether it’s bacteria or an animal, if you don’t wipe it out, it adapts to the stressor.
4/5
All this is to say, vaccinating BEFORE a pandemic is different than vaccinating DURING one.
And secondly, it was probably a huge mistake for the UK and others to go with the “single dose for everyone before full vaccination” strategy.
We’ll see what happens.
5/5
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Short 🧵on how to navigate the explosion in the price of international container shipping.
The thread starts with what I learned from my mentor who survived and thrived through the inflationary 1970s and then goes into my plan as an e-commerce seller in 2021.
--Mentor--
1. Avoid long payment terms from your customers. By the time you get paid, the money will be worth less.
2. The best way to tame inflation is to raise interest rates, so get ready for interest rates to rise.
3. Inflation is not spread evenly. Some things get in short supply, while others remain unchanged.
4. Carry a little bit more inventory of staples (your consistent best sellers) than is necessary to get ahead of price increases.
One of the many problems in the US court system is the lack of proof-of-work required to file complaints or motions.
A licensed attorney with find + replace can easily copy another party's filings and give you big legal bills in the process.
The bar for winning attorney's fees
is too high for frivolous motions and complaints, imo.
In the UK, the loser pays the winner's legal bills.
In the US, that only happens if you can show the other side acted in bad faith. It's too hard to do.
This was just filed against my company. They want to dismiss the lawsuit for lack of personal jurisdiction. They filed a very well cited 9 page motion to dismiss...
Short off-the-cuff thread with the 6 reasons why Chinese manufacturing is so cheap.
Conclusions draw from my experience buying from China for 11 years, Vietnam 6, Cambodia 3, and USA on and off.
Also based father-in-law's experience who operated factories in Taiwan, Malaysia,
China, and Vietnam.
Reason #1: Cheap labor. Chinese workers are significantly less expensive than other countries'. 1.4 billion people matters, a lot. Especially when there's a glut going into the workforce, but what about now?
Reason #2: High worker efficiency. My Korean-run
factories outside of China say the same thing that Taiwanese father-in-law says: Chinese worker efficiency is unparalleled. Direct quote from Korean factory boss "Chinese workers are happy to work 11 hour days. Vietnamese workers want to relax and enjoy life."
It definitely feels like we’re headed into another bout of 1970s style US inflation but the more I think about it the more I think it will be similar but also different.
1) we didn’t have software in the 1970s like we do today. Demand for
software does not drive price increases like it does for fixed supply high marginal cost physical products. So it’s unclear what will happen there.
2) In the 1970s a much larger percentage of the hardware we bought was made here. Now it’s all made overseas. Before demand could
for domestic wages but now it drives a lot of that demand in Asian wages, which is very different.
The prices of goods are definitely going up but outside of government assistance and lower wage earners it doesn’t have to go up here.
Does Amazon make money on the shipping and fulfillment it charges FBA sellers?
They don't reveal these data but there are clues implying this is a strong profit center.
Here's one example:
- $5.27 to ship out of our warehouse
- $7.48 to ship out of Amazon.
Here is a graph of 152 skus for which we have data.
When the red line is above the blue line, it means our shipping cost is higher than Amazon's.
When the blue line is higher, it means Amazon is more expensive.
To make this comparison apples to apples, remember:
- Amazon is including the cost of the box and fulfillment, we're not here ($0.30-$0.50 for us).
- Amazon has robots, we don't.
- Amazon has warehouses all over the country. We have one.