It definitely feels like we’re headed into another bout of 1970s style US inflation but the more I think about it the more I think it will be similar but also different.
1) we didn’t have software in the 1970s like we do today. Demand for
software does not drive price increases like it does for fixed supply high marginal cost physical products. So it’s unclear what will happen there.
2) In the 1970s a much larger percentage of the hardware we bought was made here. Now it’s all made overseas. Before demand could
for domestic wages but now it drives a lot of that demand in Asian wages, which is very different.
The prices of goods are definitely going up but outside of government assistance and lower wage earners it doesn’t have to go up here.
Who’s supposed to by that higher priced
stuff?
I’m not sure everyone agrees with me about this inflation thing I’ve been yelling about for a while but if you do, how do you think this is going to go?
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Does Amazon make money on the shipping and fulfillment it charges FBA sellers?
They don't reveal these data but there are clues implying this is a strong profit center.
Here's one example:
- $5.27 to ship out of our warehouse
- $7.48 to ship out of Amazon.
Here is a graph of 152 skus for which we have data.
When the red line is above the blue line, it means our shipping cost is higher than Amazon's.
When the blue line is higher, it means Amazon is more expensive.
To make this comparison apples to apples, remember:
- Amazon is including the cost of the box and fulfillment, we're not here ($0.30-$0.50 for us).
- Amazon has robots, we don't.
- Amazon has warehouses all over the country. We have one.
I reread Influence, one of the greatest books of all time.
It will teach you to be more persuasive and how to avoid being conned by people who know its techniques.
This is a 🧵 of its core concepts based on excerpts 1/n
👇👇👇
It's important to understand that people will do things without thinking about them consciously. Check out Thinking Fast and Slow for more information about this. My use of the 🧵 and 👇 emojis are an attempt thoughlessly trigger retweets.
This is the author, Professor Cialdini Ph.D.
Very importantly he didn't craft this book from an academic ivory tower. They way he came up with the 6 concepts of persuasion was through joining multi-level marketing programs and the like.
Between 1971 and 2021 the supply of US dollars in circulation has compounded at 7% per year.
🤯
Meanwhile the gross the domestic product of the United States compounded at 6% per year over the same period.
🤯 🤯
This is just staggering to me.
The GDP is quoted in terms of USD. Who would have guessed that GDP growth could be outpaced by the monetary unit that it is quoted in. If you made every $1 bill $2, GDP would double in nominal terms.
The first place I started doing business in was China and I knew I was going to get screwed because it was “China”, a lane of fake products and scams. I had heard the horror stories.
I was right in I did get screwed.
A few years later I came back to the United States and I tried working with a US manufacturer for something that I was previously making in China after my Chinese supplier had screwed me.
Boy was it expensive!
And something very strange happened. I had paid a lot of money for a mold made by an American mold maker and the mold was not working as it should and I told my American supplier that.
- at the same time, they engage in some borderline dishonest activities when it comes to tax minimization (not evasion). For example, Amazon knew they should've been paying sales tax instead of 3rd party merchants, but they also knew that not doing so gave them a leg up against
brick and mortar retail. So they pointed their figure at the merchants and said "they should be collecting" until the Supreme Court ruled that they had to collect.
- Congress doesn't do enough about Amazon and e-commerce for a couple of reasons: