Watch Myles Allen waffle on @thecoastguy's show about "loading the dice", to try to explain the flooding in Germany and link it to climate change. (Followed by a very decent studio discussion.)
The 'scientific' method is called 'Attribution'.
The 'scientific' method is called 'Attribution'.
This method of 'attribution' is discussed here (which you've probably already seen).
It is not science. It adds nothing to our understanding of the climate. It is literally intended only to construct political messages, and for use in climate lawfare.
It is not science. It adds nothing to our understanding of the climate. It is literally intended only to construct political messages, and for use in climate lawfare.
"Loading the dice" is a terrible analogy because it does nothing to explain the policy failure. Pseudo-scientists like Myles Allen in fact want to fix the dice, to urge even worse policies. The promise that climate change mitigation will produce fewer floods is a lie.
To reiterate the policy failure in the wake of Allen's waffle...
It doesn't matter what he claims about the frequency of intense rainfall -- which is itself dubious -- because whether or not it happens more or less often, *that it can happen* is what counts to policy/planning.
It doesn't matter what he claims about the frequency of intense rainfall -- which is itself dubious -- because whether or not it happens more or less often, *that it can happen* is what counts to policy/planning.
"This is happening slightly more often" does not excuse the policy/planning/engineering failures.
And it doesn't make the argument for stopping the thing that is the putative cause of the increase.
And it doesn't make the argument for stopping the thing that is the putative cause of the increase.
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