Thread by @gnomeicide

I think perhaps today I'll slant my regular look at Covid stats in the UK towards whats happened over the last 7 days, to give us a fuller view where we're going as we foolishly throw all caution to the wind. Here's the overall picture before a deep dive (1)

We've had 283 deaths over the last 7 days, up from 203. Thats a 40% rise in 7 days. (2)

The rate of rise has been more or less constant all week. Yes, its a lower base we're rising from, butwe continue to see deathsrising exponentially (3)

Yes, its an exponential rise. You can see it on a log plot. It ain't going up 1, 2, 3, 4. Its going up 1, 2, 4, 8. This is incredibly dangerous (4)

Sundays and Mondays are always lower reporting days, and we know from the first and second phases of the pandemic here when they report especially lowly that tends to the next days being very bad. Thats happening right now (5)

We're over 316,000 cases over the last 7 days now. 7 days ago it was 222,000 or thereabouts. Thats a 42.6% rise in 7 days. (6)

Cases are also rising exponentially. (7)

And they're rising ever faster right now (8)

We have hospitalisation data to the 13th of July. That was a total of 740, the daily average up by, surprise surpsrise, about 40% (39.6% to be precise). We can't keep filling hospitals exponentially faster for long (9)

Using appropriate delays for each, we can see that R has continued trending more or less upwards. Infection rate is getting worse, not better. (10)

Curiously a higher proportion of the number recorded as infected are being admitted to hospital. That rose from 1.79% to 1.95% over 7 days (11)

The only good marker is that the percentage who are killed continues to trend slowly down. It reached 0.17%, the lowest it has been. (12)

So after another weeks data what can we conclude? Coming in to the farcically dubbed 'freedom day' we've got about 40% more infected, 40% more hospitalised and 40% more killed than the week before (13)

The rate vaccines are making things better has slowed right down, and the rate cases and deaths are increasing is currently MASSIVELY outstripping it. (14)

To the point where those improvements do not show up AT ALL in a broader look at the data. Things are getting worse, at an exponential rate (15)

Schools will be breaking up for summer. That will reduce the number of cases or at least slow the rise, but watch the proportion hospitalsied going forward. If we replace those kids with aduts, that'll rise faster (16)

And as sure as eggs is eggs when the proportion being hospitalised rises the proportion dying will rise (or stop falling) 12 days later. (17)

The disaster isn't coming. The disaster is here. Whatever happens tomorrow we've got another 23 days of deaths rising baked in now. It is inevitable. How bad will it get? Thats a discussion for another day. (fin)