@mattyglesias @Noahpinion I worked for the market research firm that invented the all-time greatest real world laboratory for testing TV advertising's effect on supermarket sales. Famous firms loved us ... for about 5 years. But only rarely did we find a statistically significant effect from more ads.
@mattyglesias @Noahpinion The one test I ran where more advertising moved the needle of sales as measured by supermarket scanners was when a client made an important breakthru by adding a highly effective new ingredient to their toothpaste. More (informative) advertising sold more of the new toothpaste.
@mattyglesias @Noahpinion But most of the time, brand managers hired us to prove to their bosses that their ads were so great that their TV ad budget should be doubled.

But that almost never worked (unless they had new news about the product to convey).

@mattyglesias @Noahpinion 3/x. It wasn't just that our real world lab didn't show that doubling TV ad budgets for well-known supermarket products didn't pay off. Almost all the time, it didn't have _any_ impact on sales at all. The 3000 families in the More Ads group would buy 0.1% less than the Control.
@mattyglesias @Noahpinion 4/x

After 5 years of spectacular growth in demand for our superb real-world TV ad lab, the big consumer packaged goods firms got bored with testing more TV ads with us and our sales declined steadily, and the business was finally shut down after a couple of decades.
@mattyglesias @Noahpinion We ran one test where 3000 families saw on their living room TVs twice as many ads for a famous brand, 3000 saw the normal budget of ads, and 3000 saw fewer ads. All 3 groups bought the exact same amount of the product.
@mattyglesias @Noahpinion I suggested to the big client that they test with us a strategy of cutting their advertising budget to save money. Start testing in our service 2 years before you roll lower budgets out nationally, so we can tell you if cuts finally start to hurt.
@mattyglesias @Noahpinion The client replied that as a corporation they believed in television advertising. They had gotten to be the world's most respected consumer packaged goods firm by massive advertising so they weren't going to consider cutting advertising no matter what our tests showed.
@mattyglesias @Noahpinion The incentives within the client encouraged ambitious brand managers to constantly demand larger TV ad budgets. The CEO had long ago launched his rise by getting the American Dental Association to endorse his toothpaste for having fluoride and advertising the hell out of that.
@mattyglesias @Noahpinion I worked on a couple of internal meta-analyses of the results of our tests: only rarely did more advertising move the needle of sales.

Anyway, it's all rather curious 1980s ancient history. I've often wondered about the larger implications, but I don't know what they are.

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More from @Steve_Sailer

14 Jul
My new column on how Australia has solved it racial gap problem: by making it illegal to point out that the high-achieving Aborigines featured on TV appear to be white people:

"The Flight From White Down Under"
Strikingly, both of the Aboriginal-identifying accusers dishing on other Australian female grievance studies academics claiming to be "Aboriginal" themselves wear their hair blond. Grieve-Williams looks rather like Donald Trump’s first wife, Ivana:


And the officially Aboriginal Suzanne Ingram, who complains of whites horning in on the Aboriginal gravy train in "The Australian," resembles a Danish milkmaid:
Read 9 tweets
10 Jul
A Pfizer exec admitted that Pfizer put its vaccine trial on ice from late Oct. to day after election:


"... if Pfizer had held to the original plan, the data would likely have been available in October, as its CEO, Albert Bourla, had initially predicted."
One of the most extraordinary facts about the 2020 election: that Trump was likely denied his hoped-for October Surprise of a near-miraculous breakthrough in vaccines because Pfizer shut down work on the world's most important clinical trial until the day after the election.
Virtually no Trump supporters are aware of how Trump was denied his October (or November 2, 2020) Surprise of a colossal breakthrough in vaccines because they lean instead toward lowbrow anti-vaxx thinking.
Read 20 tweets
11 Jun
Thomas "Gravity's Rainbow" Pynchon's casting choices for golfer biopics:

"Owen Wilson as Jack Nicklaus, Hugh Grant in 'The Phil Mickelson Story,': and "here’s Christopher Walken, starring in 'The Chi Chi Rodriguez Story,'" with "Gene Hackman in a cameo as Arnold Palmer"
I'd like to see Michael Pena in "The Lee Trevino Story."

Hugh Grant, I am told, spends much of his time in big money golf games at Royal St. George in Sandwich, which sounds like what Phil Mickelson would do if he were an English movie star.
Thomas Pynchon's choice of Christopher Walken as Puerto Rican golf pro Chi Chi Rodriguez sounds weird, but Chi Chi had slightly unsettling movie star good looks, which is how he wound up on the cover of Devo's first album:

Read 4 tweets
9 Jun
Traffic fatalities among blacks soared as the Racial Reckoning was declared after George Floyd's death on 5/25/2020.

The triumph of BLM got more blacks killed in two separate ways: in murders and in 36% more black traffic fatalities in June-December 2020.
takimag.com/article/the-ra… Traffic fatalities among African Americans soared as soon as
Traffic fatalities among the nonblack 87% of the US population also went up as the police retreated to the donut shop during the Racial Reckoning, but much less than did black road deaths.

takimag.com/article/the-ra… Traffic Fatalities among nonblack Americans went up 9% in th
As has previously been noted, in 2020 total traffic fatalities among all Americans were 7% higher overall than in 2019 and a ridiculous 23% higher per mile driven.

But black road deaths were up 23% in 2020 and 36% higher in the seven months following George Floyd's death.
Read 5 tweets
29 May
@ModeledBehavior It's admirable that Jewish intellectuals tend to be so tradition-minded, so ethnocentric, so inclined to venerate their ancestors that they've rewritten American history to make Emma Lazarus the Founding Mother and Ellis Island the Plymouth Rock.
@ModeledBehavior But it's a little alarming that Jews seem less and less to realize that the joke they've put over on the rest of Americans in hyping their ancestors' arrival at Ellis Island as the founding event of American history is a funny put-on, not serious history.
@ModeledBehavior As the generations go by, fewer and fewer Jewish intellectuals seem to get the joke that when their forefathers turned the "wretched refuse" poem into the National Mission Statement in the mid-20th Century, they were just doing it out of ethnic egocentrism.
Read 4 tweets
18 May
Here's the black percentage of all known murder offenders from FBI crime stats for 1980-2019. Relatively, blacks behaved best in 1984 and worst in 1993 during the Crack Wars. But God knows how bad the figure for 2020 will be.

Here's another way of looking at the same FBI data on the black share of known murder offenders, this time emphasizing that, year after year, blacks make up about half of known murder offenders in the US.
You can download your own customized sets of FBI homicide data from the federal government's Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports (EZASHR) website:

Read 4 tweets

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