Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/8. FRANCE - Jul 20 (9,554 cases; 18 deaths) to Jul 26 (12,472 cases; 16 deaths).

All French Régions and most Dépts (but Mayotte) are in rapid and worrying deterioration of their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.37).

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/8 - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (R-eff=1.51) [and Bourgogne-et-Franche-Comté (1.54)] are experiencing rapid and worrying surge, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, both with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/8 - Corsica (R-eff=1.73) [and Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (1.50)] are experiencing rapid and worrying surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with no [low] mortality, for 7 more days.

4/8 - Nouvelle-Aquitaine (R-eff=1.47), [and Occitanie (1.47)] are experiencing [rapid and worrying] surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality for 7 more days.

5/8 - Normandie (R-eff=1.54), Pays-de-la-Loire (1.50), Bretagne (1.41), Centre-Val-de-Loire (1.41) are experiencing rapid and worrying surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low mortality, for 7 more days.

6/8 - Hauts-de-France (R-eff=1.42), and Grand-Est (1.45) are experiencing rapid and worrying surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, just above their safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

7/8 - Ile-de-France (R-eff=1.33) is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low mortality, for 7 more days.

8/8 - Martinique (R-eff=1.56) is experiencing rapid and worrying surge at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality, for 7 more d.

Réunion (1.04), [Guadeloupe (1.19)], Guyane (1.01) plateauing, with -high [no] high-mortality.
Mayotte (0.89) has landed.

9/8 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

10/8 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0