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20 Jul, 13 tweets, 4 min read
The proposal to entirely reinvent international trade and the EU's single market as a solution to the Northern Ireland protocol makes an unwelcome reappearance. As implausible as it has been at any time over the last five years.
In brief, the idea is that the entire EU regulatory acquis for goods is enshrined in UK law, and the entire UK equivalent into the EU. These would then apply only to goods exported to the other party. A nightmare-ish bureaucratic proposition at heart.
We are then supposed to believe that borders are removed because regulations are the same, which doesn't work in the EU never mind anywhere else in the world. And that this would build trust. I'm entirely unsure how, sounds like a recipe for suspicion.
We have existing equivalence systems in international trade. They work by reducing, but not eliminating, border checks, through extensive relationship and trust building, not legal gimmickry. This proposal is not that.
All the 'alternatives' on Northern Ireland are ultimately rejected by the EU as they undermine the basis on which the single market is created - of a shared legal structure allowing the removal of borders. Recall - only the EU has removed trade checks...
As with alternative arrangements the idea of mutual enforcement is just a distraction, at best an interesting intellectual exercise to reinvent international trade, rather than a practical solution in Northern Ireland now. Meanwhile we have to deal with day-to-day trade reality.
As of today, for international trade, we either align regulations and underpin with shared structures, or we have border checks possibly reduced by equivalence. That has been our challenge for Northern Ireland since 2016. Pretending otherwise hasn't helped resolve that.
Expect another round of fantasy trade and regulations in the UK government's latest Northern Ireland proposals tomorrow. All rather tiring.
And as before, the even more tiresome claims the UK government might breach the NI protocol / walk away with no EU deal. Two years in and still some people think it credible.
A quick view from Ireland on the 'new' / very old proposals for changing the NI protocol. We really would be better understanding better why this is the case (spoiler alert, writing on the very subject...)
A little illustration of why simplistic solutions to the Northern Ireland protocol won't work. 2016/2031, protective measures on pests of plants. 120 pages of detail, backed up by extensive operational decisions. NI follows 300 similar regulations. eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
How are you going to abide by rules such as these if you have no borders and checks? Mutual enforcement simply is never going to be acceptable. You either align enough to not need borders, or products are going to be checked. And that's the global norm.
Maybe even blunter than I am. Rightly. Worth noting the total absence of support for alternatives to the NI protocol from any serious EU commentator, or serious EU trade or law expert. Can't be bothered with unicorns especially given power imbalance.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
22 Jul
I was asked a few times yesterday where I saw discussions on the Northern Ireland protocol heading, and the simple answer is that we're right now in an unsatisfactory but not completely unstable equilibrium between all parties, which could endure. politico.eu/article/brusse…
The EU thinks the UK is not implementing the protocol properly, taking account of EU flexibility, but ultimately should align. The UK thinks the EU is not implementing the protocol properly, taking account of UK implementation, and ultimately should allow a border free-for-all.
As long as the UK does not invoke Article 16 or the EU more serious legal action, then they can uncomfortably for both sides carry on as is - both unhappy it isn't being done to their specification, but both in particular not upsetting the US by going further.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jul
The UK government's Northern Ireland statement in short - rewrite history as to how we got here, whinge about the impact with a handful of select figures, suggest preposterous and shallow honesty scheme to replace almost the entire protocol, threaten Article 16 later.
It is another fundamentally unserious document from the UK government with regard to Northern Ireland, taking the debate backwards and lowering trust. Obviously the proposals would be unacceptable to anyone, which leads to what happens in September. Conflict or climbdown?
Teaser alert - the largest section in the UK government's Northern Ireland command paper is on how we got to the current position. In case that provides a clue as to whether the emphasis is more on self-justification or practical solutions.
Read 22 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jul
Insofar as I've been able to read until the paywall kicks in, more on the rapidly changing global trade debate, in which conditionality is increasingly threatening non-discrimination (although they may not be mutually exclusive) - driven by the EU and US. Image
It is the contrast between the active global trade debate on conditionality, and the UK's nice tariff and market distortion obsessions that is so disappointing. We could have played a part in the debate, as a new entrant, but chose instead to look back 50 years.
A sensible UK contribution to the new debate on conditional trade would have been to accept the necessity, but insist on the retention of broad principles such as non-discrimination and open trade. In other words, to use open trade to incentivise positive results.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jul
No better evidence of the extent to which UK trade thinking is outdated and out of kilter with global thinking than this Board of Trade report on Green Trade. As the EU and US discuss carbon border taxes, we propose, well nothing really... gov.uk/government/pub…
In so far as there is an argument in this Board of Trade report, it seems to be that reducing tariffs can encourage green trade because of specialisation. Which is not necessarily true (or false), new, or in any way groundbreaking. Image
In the trade policy community the particular joke on the UK government is that everything has to be connected to "anti-competitive market distortions", a simplistic universal notion pushed by a couple of advisers, dismissed as obvious and unimportant everywhere else. Image
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jul
Marks and Spencer did not have a good Brexit transition, failing to get products to stores in France, and it looks like the reason might be that the Chairman does not understand international trade or the EU. bbc.co.uk/news/business-… Image
You wonder how much of the farce of repeated unacceptable UK government proposals on Northern Ireland are related to thinking the EU does borders wrong, even though only within the EU do you get no border checks, and every other country has them.
Simon tries to put a brave face on the farce, imagining what if someone had a bright idea that might resolve the NI protocol - well then we'd need to convince the EU... which is of course not happening.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Jul
Weird interview. Not feeling better about the past, present, or future of this government. But as to who did what when, no idea...
Struggling to work out how leaving the EU to take back control and make things better was consistent with then putting someone you know to be hopeless as Prime Minister.
The gulf between the Cummings big picture and his detail is vast enough to explain rather a lot, from Brexit to covid to Johnson.
Read 4 tweets

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