Always welcome ideas & solutions in this space. Certainly worth considering. Two big questions in my mind 1) on where the border actually is under this approach 2) on enforcement. Short thread 1/
The approach sets out mutual enforcement of each others rules for things being sold into the other party. But what counts as an export? Is it goods moving from GB to NI or from NI to RoI? If the latter then this amounts to a big shift back to potentially having a land border 2/
Hard to see EU agreeing to this shift, also takes us back in discussions to 2017 essentially. It may be argued no border is needed, but there will inevitably need to be some sense of what counts as an export & where checks might take place. Which brings me on to enforcement...3/
Its hard to imagine this can be done without any physical enforcement, again EU very unlikely to accept that. So where would this take place? If at a border, then we are back into the same problems. If somewhere else (e.g. point of departure)...4/
Then we are into big questions of logistical/technical scope (e.g. can every farm be checked?) & significant rewriting of EU rules on customs, agri & industrial regs about when/where enforcement takes place (contrary to authors it doesn't retain EU reg autonomy in this sense) 5/
Finally bringing the two issues together is what happens if rules are found not to be adhered to? What retaliatory action can be taken? If the border is essentially between NI & RoI then any reaction will essentially mean the creation of a land border 6/
All in all, a lots of unanswered questions & I'd find it hard to imagine EU would entertain this sort of approach. But if they do, then I'd be all for exploring how to make it work! 7/ ENDS

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Raoul Ruparel

Raoul Ruparel Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RaoulRuparel

21 Jul
Thread on UK's new command paper on NI. As I've said before, I agree with the starting point that current implementation of Protocol isn't sustainable. That said, proposals are a mixed bag. Bits can form basis of a discussion IMO but others less so 1/…
Sections 1 & 2 are largely narrative, adds little. I would note that this Govt complains about being forced into less than ideal decisions due to political circumstances but shows no understanding that those same pressures applied to previous Govt who's decisions it laments 2/
On customs the paper essentially sets out expanding 'at risk' further to mean not only are products staying in NI tariff free but also not subject to full gamut of customs processes/admin. Enforcement sounds similar to current UK Trader Scheme. 3/
Read 16 tweets
7 May
Most detailed (albeit unofficial sources) rebuttal to UK proposals on at risk approach to SPS under Protocol. Approach taken by EU here strikes me as a bit bizarre though not surprising. A few reasons why...1/
1st of course it isn't compatible with EU legislation as it stands, that's the point. If the metric to judge is, does it work within EU law then the Protocol itself would never have been agreed. Why use that metric now but not before? Who decided where the line is? 2/
2nd it is bit strange to leave assessment solely to DG Sante. There are much wider, more political considerations at play here. It would be like Defra alone deciding the UK's approach to NI 3/
Read 5 tweets
18 Feb
Interesting chart & I think relevant for the Scottish independence debate. Many on SNP side cite Irish example of being able to diversify away from trade with UK as path Scotland can follow. I think this chart highlights why that will be hard/unlikely. Short thread explaining 1/
The chart highlights that the reduction in trade share with the UK didn't come from switching trade away from UK but from taking advantage of opportunities elsewhere & increasing trade overall as share of GNP. 2/
The problem is, Scotland has already had all these opportunities when UK was inside the EU. Yet it still traded predominantly with the UK. So these won't be new opportunities for Scotland as they were for Ireland when it joined EEC. 3/
Read 7 tweets
19 Jan
As I & others have said, a lot of disruption we are seeing is the result of fact UK/EU went for an FTA rather than another form of relationship. However, there is an interesting point on rules of origin, where a facilitation included in CETA was not included in UK TCA. Thread 1/
Under CETA a product exported from one party to the other then returned without any processing can still qualify for preferential tariff on return. But it can't under the UK TCA. See EU CETA guidance here 2/…
One of the challenges businesses are facing is that products moved from the EU to the UK & then back to EU are no longer eligible for preferential tariffs even if they haven't undergone processing. This may happen if they are sent to a distribution centre for example. 3/
Read 7 tweets
30 Dec 20
On the day DUP voted against the deal, it is worth briefly remembering how, after voting for Brexit, they have managed to pretty much vote against every form of Brexit possible, go from kingmakers to irrelevant & harm their core cause. A true lesson in how not to do politics. 1/
As a reminder they had the offer under the previous govt at 3rd meaningful vote of entire UK in a customs union, with alignment on other areas & Stormont lock on new laws. As well as a wider econ package. They voted against it & were main reason it failed 2/
In the indicative votes process they then proceeded to vote against customs union & EEA. Often professing a desire for the sort of relationship which is now on offer in the FTA. 3/
Read 6 tweets
30 Dec 20
Off the back of the thread below, lots of people asked for one on services & financial services. So here it is. The deal is very thin in both areas, though that was expected. I don't think it amounts to making the deal unfair/unbalanced but it is a missed opportunity. 1/
First, we shouldn't look at this through the lens of UK having trade deficit with EU in goods & surplus in services. That is too simplistic. EU accounts for a large proportion of UK's goods trade so zero tariff zero quota is beneficial for UK as well for the EU. 2/
Similarly, having a very thin deal on services & financial services is also bad for EU. Belief in some quarters than business will simply move from UK to EU in these areas. But its not that simple. Will be costs & duplication while some business just won't make sense any more 3/
Read 17 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!