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20 Jul, 11 tweets, 4 min read
To be honest 'new thinking' or indeed just 'thinking' would be welcome from the UK government with regard to the Northern Ireland protocol, as compared to the usual shallow analysis, reheated leftovers and empty threats. Expectations low.
As a believer in precedent in international relations I have a strong feeling I'm not going to enjoy the UK's latest proposal on Northern Ireland tomorrow.
As predicted on Northern Ireland, same old UK government denial of trade issues and threats to breach treaty laughably called a “wholesale change of approach”. Two years, same nonsense repeatedly. ft.com/content/c82a5d…
The bold new UK government threat to break the Northern Ireland protocol is of course completely unlike the old threat to walk away with no deal, or claim supremacy for UK law under the Internal Market Act.
Why did nobody else think of an "honesty box" approach to trade across borders? Could it be because it is completely ridiculous?
More of the emotional blackmail that has been the UK government;s core approach to the Northern Ireland protocol this year. Aka, we'll threaten part of our own country if you don't change your entire system.
Since Article 16 of the protocol will inevitably be mentioned I would point out that by treaty this is both limited and open to retaliatory measures. As I keep saying, nice car plant you have there Nissan, be a shame if anyone were to impose tariffs on it.
Initial verdict on the UK's new Northern Ireland protocol paper - meet the new plan, same as the old plan. Refusal to admit to the realities of international trade, empty threats to walk away, emotional blackmail to try to force EU change.
EU response, outright refusal to deal in fantasy trade politics, some concern about what the UK will do tempered with contingency plans to hurt, ensure the US is on their side, assume this could go for a very long time. What else is possible?
If the UK wish to keep transitional arrangements for the NI protocol in place for ever, then that might yet be achieved - but this is far short of their promise and the rhetoric. And will be vulnerable to EU squeeze when next UK wants something, as we will.
Nothing more irritating to the UK government and Brexit supporters than their failure to win over the US on the
Northern Ireland protocol. Bear in mind, this is a US that doesn't even like EU regulation that much. Tells you how badly UK is doing.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
22 Jul
I was asked a few times yesterday where I saw discussions on the Northern Ireland protocol heading, and the simple answer is that we're right now in an unsatisfactory but not completely unstable equilibrium between all parties, which could endure. politico.eu/article/brusse…
The EU thinks the UK is not implementing the protocol properly, taking account of EU flexibility, but ultimately should align. The UK thinks the EU is not implementing the protocol properly, taking account of UK implementation, and ultimately should allow a border free-for-all.
As long as the UK does not invoke Article 16 or the EU more serious legal action, then they can uncomfortably for both sides carry on as is - both unhappy it isn't being done to their specification, but both in particular not upsetting the US by going further.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jul
The UK government's Northern Ireland statement in short - rewrite history as to how we got here, whinge about the impact with a handful of select figures, suggest preposterous and shallow honesty scheme to replace almost the entire protocol, threaten Article 16 later.
It is another fundamentally unserious document from the UK government with regard to Northern Ireland, taking the debate backwards and lowering trust. Obviously the proposals would be unacceptable to anyone, which leads to what happens in September. Conflict or climbdown?
Teaser alert - the largest section in the UK government's Northern Ireland command paper is on how we got to the current position. In case that provides a clue as to whether the emphasis is more on self-justification or practical solutions.
Read 22 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jul
Insofar as I've been able to read until the paywall kicks in, more on the rapidly changing global trade debate, in which conditionality is increasingly threatening non-discrimination (although they may not be mutually exclusive) - driven by the EU and US. Image
It is the contrast between the active global trade debate on conditionality, and the UK's nice tariff and market distortion obsessions that is so disappointing. We could have played a part in the debate, as a new entrant, but chose instead to look back 50 years.
A sensible UK contribution to the new debate on conditional trade would have been to accept the necessity, but insist on the retention of broad principles such as non-discrimination and open trade. In other words, to use open trade to incentivise positive results.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jul
No better evidence of the extent to which UK trade thinking is outdated and out of kilter with global thinking than this Board of Trade report on Green Trade. As the EU and US discuss carbon border taxes, we propose, well nothing really... gov.uk/government/pub…
In so far as there is an argument in this Board of Trade report, it seems to be that reducing tariffs can encourage green trade because of specialisation. Which is not necessarily true (or false), new, or in any way groundbreaking. Image
In the trade policy community the particular joke on the UK government is that everything has to be connected to "anti-competitive market distortions", a simplistic universal notion pushed by a couple of advisers, dismissed as obvious and unimportant everywhere else. Image
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jul
Marks and Spencer did not have a good Brexit transition, failing to get products to stores in France, and it looks like the reason might be that the Chairman does not understand international trade or the EU. bbc.co.uk/news/business-… Image
You wonder how much of the farce of repeated unacceptable UK government proposals on Northern Ireland are related to thinking the EU does borders wrong, even though only within the EU do you get no border checks, and every other country has them.
Simon tries to put a brave face on the farce, imagining what if someone had a bright idea that might resolve the NI protocol - well then we'd need to convince the EU... which is of course not happening.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Jul
Weird interview. Not feeling better about the past, present, or future of this government. But as to who did what when, no idea...
Struggling to work out how leaving the EU to take back control and make things better was consistent with then putting someone you know to be hopeless as Prime Minister.
The gulf between the Cummings big picture and his detail is vast enough to explain rather a lot, from Brexit to covid to Johnson.
Read 4 tweets

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