2020 Polling Error Report by @AAPOR super unsatisfying: authors are able to detail several likely causes of polling error that did not happen, but they admit there are several possible (maybe in concert) causes of polling error that may or may not persist aapor.org/Education-Reso…
Super impressed & thankful that the authors were able to produce a document so quickly that was so thorough, clear, and brave enough to not try to force an answer or make us feel better about the future of polling. The report is true, necessary, and will lead to critical research
I have been a frequent, public, critic of @AAPOR and its dogged obsession with "probability" polling done on the phone (remember those), but this report had a lot of folks I respect, including @joshclinton as chair, @aedwardslevy SunshineHillygus @jcbjackson John Lapinski, etc.
Academia *hates* non-findings, but this work is too important and interesting to file away. Summary is very digestible, suggest you read it if you care about polling & elections aapor.org/Education-Reso…
I feel bad only including a partial list of the authors, so further should out to Andrew Smith & @CBWlezien who also do great work.
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