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Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
@CalibreObscura
Jul 20, 2021 • 8 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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#Afghanistan: IS K released a new video, 4th in the ISIS release series ("Makers of Epic Battles"). Here's a hopefully decent breakdown.

1/
Much of the video focuses on two main themes. First, the urban/semi-urban attacks against the ANA, ANP and others in Jalalabad and Kabul. To this end we see a lot of close in attacks with small arms, IEDs, 107mm etc. They're pretty operationally effective, but nothing new.

2/
Needless to say, IS K is rather operationally capable in said areas, as well as more broadly across Afghanistan (Kunar, etc). Quite interesting to see attacks carried out from Tuktuks, which I have read of being used by urban cells. Standard small arms (AKs, handguns etc)

3/
Video then moves onto the massive ISIS jailbreak ("breaking the walls") attack against the Jalalabad Prison in August 2020. This freed "100s" of ISIS fighters. Full weapon IDs are from my tweets at the time, but the section is explicit on IS' promises.
4/
This section is interesting; it refers back to the "Breaking of the Walls" campaigns back in Iraq, and shows footage of said breakouts. Some of it I don't recognise- not sure if any is new.

5/
Several foreigners speak, such as a Tajik in this section (Pic 3). They're heavily armed, as I originally wrote about. Couple of PKs w/ a Makarov shown here from a new angle & location. Pre attack prep and recon is also shown. This attack was indicative of serious capability.

6/
To put the proverbial (and rhetorical) cherry on the cake, the video then shows multiple ISIS fighters who were released during the attack, and who are now back with the group. (Oh, and another part shows 107mm fire against Bagram- had to fit that in...)

7/
Conclusions: Tho video wasn't anything like as complex or revealing as it could have been (and indeed avoided showing much, it's a very clear signalling of intent. Regional countries are threatened, capabilities are made clear & IS wants you to know that they aren't gone.

[END]

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More from @CalibreObscura

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Aug 10
One aspect that many miss RE:AA FPV UAV is that these are a reaction to a lack of MANPADS, particularly those not from the Cold War.

Sure FPV can work, but if every AFU unit had plenty of LMM or Starstreak, esp. w/ extended range, the need would be met much more efficiently.
The innovation shown in 🇺🇦 is excellent, lessons learned should be diffused into other allied militaries, but we shouldn't fetishize systems that have developed because of specific local conditions. Some of the situation now is because the AFU has not been efficiently resourced.
Ofc, as the drones develop, they will become more and more like MANPADS. The cost will rise, especially as features such as passive radar/ELINT targeting become more common than they already are.

I am not bashing what Ukrainians are doing, I'm just pointing out the reality.
Read 9 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Mar 22
According to some local reports & the ISIS claim, the attackers withdrew successfully. They will have communicated with IS-K/Central, poss. including videos/images of them carrying out the massacre.

They are still at large. This is exactly what security forces don't want.
Usually they don't manage. But if your security forces don't arrive for an hour, this can happen. So they can sleep, rearm, and do it again. Inghimasi don't expect to survive, so for them this is a bonus.
When they kill these guys, they will find a phone with either SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram or maybe Viber msgs to an account with a central asian or Afghan number. That account will have been assisting, directing & encouraging them live. Non-0 chance US SIGINT can see said messages.
Read 4 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Mar 22
The US Intel was right. Again.
Your reminder btw, because I know people will be doing it, deaths of civilians is never, ever to be celebrated. I hope the vermin who carried this out are slotted with all rapidity
From the video: At least 5 men with AKs, probably 74s. Can't see PBIED, although given IS-K to be expected. This is worse case, nightmare scenario stuff that Western forced worry about and train for constantly.

No, not doing any ID, it's not healthy for the mind and soul
Read 5 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Nov 3, 2023
Random thoughts on the al Qassam footage from the IDF ground incursion in no particular order.

Firstly- Clear that the en mass production of the "Yassin" PG-7VR copy was a very sensible decision. This was the most achievable way for them for them to create a potent anti....
armour weapon, with good penetrative capabilities against IDF armour. Even more sensible was the adoption of the main warhead of the Yassin (Essentially the same as a PG-7L) as a static charge IED. That way, the same production line(s) could be efficiently used to boost..
..al Qassam et al anti-armour capabilities in a simple to use package. So far, this seems to have been effective, although the daring IED-placing rambo probably wasted his actions, as the directional charge wouldn't have gone in the right...direction.

Anyway, next.
Read 14 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Oct 25, 2023
I'm going to write a few things here before I go.

This is not *why* I am leaving all of this, but rather just some notes to whoever might find them useful.
Why does someone do the stuff I have? Why does someone write thousands of words and spend so many hours?

It's because yes, you enjoy it, but it makes you feel like you are making a positive difference. But then it starts feeling like a job, a job that gives you no earnings.
Then you find that dozens, if not hundreds, of organisations, companies, large (evidently revenue earning) accounts, YouTubers etc, are very, very happy to use your expertise and your time, and *will not* compensate you for it. Sometimes you get credit, which is nice.
Read 7 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
May 8, 2023
Something I didn't say in November that I think now- this stuff has a deeply personal tinge. The Ukrainians are targeting people because they see them as guilty of assisting in their (attempted) genocide. This is Mossad in the 60s, and they are only just starting.
Sensible people in European security circles should be thinking about how to manage and mitigate a service absolutely willing to go kinetic on their soil in five or ten years when some of the Russian men who were Bucha or Mariupol manage to get to Germany etc
So much analysis of this misses the personal factor.

Why wouldn't you target the people who wanted to turn you into a literal footnote of history?
Read 6 tweets

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