"China will work to foster an ideological environment conducive to its rise while opposing Western values" - Yan Xuetong, leading expert on CN foreign policy and the Dean of Tsinghua U's Inst of Contemporary IR, has written a new essay that you won't want to miss. A Summary:
Yan speaks for CN policymakers who believe that CN's elevated status as a great power gives it the authority to play a new role in IR, "one that cannot be reconciled" with US hegemony, as suggested by the title, "How Should We Make the Voice of CN Diplomacy Heard in the New Era?"
According to Yan, CN's either surpassed or is rapidly closing the gap with the US in a variety of areas, including the ongoing pandemic, 5G technologies, & digital currencies, per Xi: The world is in the midst of changes "unseen in a century", a rising East & a declining West. 3/
Therefore, Yan Xuetong believes that the US-led "unipolar order" is gradually disintegrating and that a new "multipolar order" will emerge in its place, "with China and the US at its core." 4/
Yan Xuetong assures that the PRC does not want to fight the US; on the contrary, China recognizes the limits of its economic and military power as a developing country – albeit the richest and strongest – and that a Cold War confrontation is not in its long-term interests. 5/
The main issue is that China saw Biden pick up where Trump left off, labelling China a "strategic competitor" and attempting to isolate and contain it in ways that jeopardize its interests, interfere in its internal affairs, hurt its dignity, and...
...impede its progress toward "national rejuvenation." China does not oppose multilateral rules and institutions, contrary to popular belief in the West, but "it does resent the United States establishing rules without consulting China." 7/
Yan Xuetong predicts that China's foreign policy will be influenced by its "dual identity" as a a developing major power in all dimensions in the post-pandemic era, with great power competition looming in the background. 8/
That is, CN will challenge US hegemony in areas where it has or can gain an advantage, rather than escalating the rivalry into a full-fledged Cold War. A hot war's obviously not an option unless, for example, TW declares independence, in which case CN "may have no other option"9/
In terms of the future global landscape, Yan Xuetong envisions a world order in which many multilateral organizations coexist, with some overlap and conflicting interests, rather than a Cold War-style US versus China-led bloc. /10
Countries would need to find a way to hedge their differences with the two major powers in the coming decade, as we see today with Australia and China, both members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and competitors:
"in most cases, China and the United States will form rival clubs, and other countries will decide which club to join on a case-by-case basis."

In the coming decade, such conflicts may exacerbate political instability and anti-globalization trends. It's not an ideal world, "but this is preferable to hardline fragmented geopolitical blocs". A race to the 1st place, as Xi said in Davos, is preferable to a boxing match.
"China's post-pandemic foreign policy is just beginning to take shape. The Chinese government has always adjusted its policies to changing domestic and foreign conditions, following Deng Xiaoping's practice of "crossing the river by feeling the stones."/14
"The future is no different. However, the context for these adjustments will be a fundamentally altered global landscape in which U.S. unilateral decisions, as well as the various alliances and issue-specific coalitions it leads, will no longer be as viable as they once were"/End
The article is so jam-packed with information that it has something for everyone doing research on China, including many ideas I didn't mention in the summary. Link: guancha.cn/YanXueTong/202…
Stay tuned for a full translation of the essay.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Tuvia Gering 陶文亚

Tuvia Gering 陶文亚 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @GeringTuvia

19 Jul
There are a few key points and caveats about China's military ambitions in Djibouti and elsewhere that I'd like to add here, that were not included in the report:
That CN has become more aggressive toward its neighbors and repressive at home, and the ambitious nature of the BRI potentially threatens US predominance, does not necessarily mean that any steps beyond its traditional frontiers are less legitimate than the traditional powers' 2/
Beijing's top priority is to ensure that its growing number of citizens, troops, assets, and investments are no longer reliant on foreign forces for protection, particularly assets in BRI countries. Just look at the recent terror attack in Dassu for reference. 3/
Read 12 tweets
18 Jul
"A serious casualty like this must be paid for in blood!" - After China and Pakistan officially confirmed that the 9 Chinese citizens were killed by terrorists, the non-affiliated Zhanhao, one of the most popular WeChat blogs, says, "I told you so". 1/4 Image
Like Prof. Liu Zongyi and the Global Times, which I've tweeted about earlier, Zhanhao links the incident to the US, India, and the Pakistani Taliban, and declares that "the time has come for China to fight terrorism!"

More specifically, Zhanhao says that "after the US forces completely withdraw from Afghanistan," China should "eliminate terrorism in northern Pakistan! Seize the opportunity and wipe 'em out in one fell swoop!" 3/
Read 5 tweets
14 Jul
"What does the decline of American hegemony mean to the world?" - Prof. Huang Renwei, executive president of the Fudan Institute of Belt and Road & Global Governance and former vice president of SASS, sees a future in which US hegemony declines and China's overall power grows 1/7
Because "US fear of losing its hegemony is combined with its fear of CN," and "Washington has positioned CN as its number one strategic competitor, primary strategic threat, and the largest "revisionist" country in the intn'l order," China, too, must rethink its US strategy.
Huang makes the following predictions:
1) Assuming that the US can no longer fulfill so many global obligations, it will abandon many. However, in new ventures, the US and China are on the same starting point, so there will be opportunities for China.
Read 8 tweets
14 Jul
"As the Taliban takes the initiative to show goodwill, China is determined not to follow in the footsteps of the United States and the Soviet Union [in Afghanistan]" - a short commentary for the Observer by Middle East columnist Sun Jialing. Excerpt:
"China has never clung to one side, let alone supported a single player, on the Middle East's intricate geopolitical chessboard.
"The reason this place is known as the graveyard of empires is that most empires have unrealistic ambitions and illusions, so they inevitably perish over their obsessively clenched fists;
Read 4 tweets
13 Jul
"The introduction of market laws into the moral sphere has resulted in the loss of people's moral constructs, resulting in the commodification of human consciousness and interpersonal relationships, as well as the legitimization of selfishness" - Prof. Chen Lai...
...Dean of Academy of Chinese Learning 国学 and philosophy professor at Tsinghua University, writes a short social critique, not unlike the short lecture video I tweeted about last week from renowned Fudan University professor of philosophy at Wang Defeng
But unlike Wang, Chen Lai believes that to save the souls, so to speak, of the Chinese people, the government should be more involved.
Read 5 tweets
12 Jul
In what could be interpreted as a critique of the "Wolf Warrior" diplomats, Yang Jiemian, Senior Fellow and Vice President at SIIS, a think-tank administered by the Shanghai municipal government, gave a keynote speech at the "China International Issues Forum 2021" on June 19.
1/8 ImageImage
To begin, he advocates for gradual changes rather than "great leaps" in accordance with the Marxist materialist view of history. 2/
Second, China should continue to be a unique voice in the international community ('seize the main contradiction'), but its diplomacy should be compatible with the rest of the world:
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!