Thread by @WILLisms

Although there was only one lonely, single, solitary randomized controlled trial on masks in the COVID era (in Denmark), we do have U.S. data from last year.

Turns out, the COVID results were better in mask-optional than in forced-mask schools.

https://twitter.com/WILLisms/status/1415088913757184000

The student infection rate in mask-optional schools was lower than in forced-mask schools during the past school year.

Forced-mask schools had higher infection rates in 10 out of 14 two-week periods, more dramatic peaks, and a higher average infection rate.

The infection rate for staff in mask-optional schools was lower than in forced-mask schools during the past school year.

Forced-mask schools had higher infection rates in 11 out of 14 two-week periods, a 3x higher peak, and a much higher average infection rate.

If mask mandates work as well as advertised (if they work at all!), the forced-mask schools should have performed much better than the mask-optional schools.

They didn't.

Let's dig in a bit here to the data: statsiq.co1.qualtrics.com/public-dashboa…

Why does the graph begin in October? There is some pre-October data, but for both forced-mask and mask-optional schools, it's limited compared to the rest of the school year.

For mask-optional schools pre-October, we're talking a handful of high schools worth of students.

More forced-mask students were included than mask-optional students throughout the school year.

In a randomized controlled trial, two groups could have been balanced in size, demographics, region, etc. etc.

We're simply working with what we've got. Not my fault.

To force masks upon an entire population, the burden of proof should be high.

Do they even work? Do they have harms?

Those coercing an entire society to suddenly do such an extraordinary, unprecedented thing should be prepared to defend their mandates with data and evidence.

Even if mask mandates worked a little bit to slow the spread of viruses (there's no evidence of this, anywhere), and even if masks had zero harms (there's plenty of evidence of harms), those making unprecedented demands in a free society still have to convince rather than coerce.

Do you feel like there's been a lot of explanation, persuasion, and case-making over the past year and half?

Because I have mostly just seen a whole lot of coercion, mandates, obfuscation, and gaslighting, resulting in the dissolution of public trust in scientific institutions.

In pre-COVID literature, there are many examples of harms without any benefits.

In the COVID-era, there is no real-world evidence of masks doing a dad-gum thing to bend any curve:

https://twitter.com/WILLisms/status/1416482432400994305

Beyond the obvious physiological harms of blocking breathing and inhaling one's own effluence all day, every day, for many months on end, I contend that there are additional sociological, psychological, and cultural harms from masks. Higher crime. Lower test scores for kids. Etc.

Back to the quantifiable stuff, though. The graphs.

The "average" number in the upper-right quadrant is just a crude mean of the 14 two-week periods.

Is this the best way to calculate the average for the year? Probably not.

Is it still useful? Yep. Sure is.

There are lots of ways to parse the data. One could examine high or low community spread, distancing requirements, or percent in-person. One could isolate all sorts of variables.

If you want to do that, great. Do it.

I just grabbed all the available data for these two graphs.

Some parse out only the most in-person schools for the graphs, or they leave in the small data set from before October 2020, but the conclusions (“masking children had no material effect on covid cases among students or staff in schools”) still hold: boriquagato.substack.com/p/your-childs-…

Some, like @ianmSC, post brilliant comparisons nearly every single day, demonstrating the futility of forced-masking, the hypocrisy of the mask coercers, and the general absurdity of our media.

Like this one:

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1417196589249024003

Others, like @ThomasEWoods, ask people to look at unlabeled graphs and proclaim which political units locked people down and forced masks, and which ones didn't: covidchartsquiz.com

Including only 30+% in-person schools, the numbers still show the same thing.

Forced-mask schools had higher infection rates in 10 out of 14 two-week periods (2 weeks were ties). The average infection rate was higher in forced-masked schools. And the January peak was higher.

Same with staff. If you take out sub-30% in-person (including remote-only), you get an even more stark difference between forced-mask schools and mask-optional schools.

Forced-mask teachers had double the average infection rate, with a 4x peak versus mask-optional teachers.

If you want to go control for community spread, go for it. You do you.

"el gato malo" did it; masks still didn't work.

In Florida, school districts are based on county lines. Some required masks. Some didn't.

County-level results favored mask freedom:

https://twitter.com/WILLisms/status/1394418050397622272

In Texas, students and staff in forced-mask schools had higher infection rates than students and staff in mask-optional schools.

Removing remote-only and sub-30% in-person schools demonstrates the same phenomenon.

Is the data set perfect? Probably not. There's only been one randomized controlled trial on masks in the COVID era ("the Danish Mask study"), which demonstrated no statistical benefit to mask wearing.

This real-world data came from @ProfEmilyOster, et al.
statsiq.co1.qualtrics.com/public-dashboa…

Of course, you may be googling @ProfEmilyOster now.

I personally think she's reasonable, credible, and trustworthy but actually a bit too COVID-anxious for my personal taste. But that's just me.

She was also the lead on this paper: doi.org/10.1101/2021.0…

Moreover, @ProfEmilyOster is apparently both a hero and a villain, according to the New York Times: nytimes.com/2021/06/22/us/…

And, finally, @ProfEmilyOster is launching a new data hub for the next school year: covidschooldatahub.com

Data = important and useful, but it can also trap people in their own heads. They check the graphs every day and base their entire lives around numbers in spreadsheets.

As we approach the 2021-22 school year, we are going to have another natural experiment (but unfortunately, no randomized controlled trial that I know of) in America's schools: about.burbio.com/school-mask-po…

I'd 100% bet big against forced-mask schools outperforming mask-optional.

Forced masks have no demonstrable benefits for reducing COVID-19, but there are both proven and suspected harms.

Shame on @AmerAcadPeds for ignoring the evidence and instead producing a political document recommending the forced-masking of children:

https://twitter.com/WILLisms/status/1417290341095550980

As @kerpen notes, unvaccinated children are actually at less known statistical risk than vaccinated adults 30-years-old and up:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1413523711651721216

In the upcoming 2021-22 school year, Texas public schools are not allowed to force small children to wear masks, per @GregAbbott_TX's Executive Order: gov.texas.gov/news/post/gove…

School districts are likely now sending panicked, urgent correspondence to @GregAbbott_TX on masks.

"Please! Let us coerce small children into doing this extraordinary, fruitless, harmful thing for another year. Let us compel the rejection of data and disavowal of evidence."