Thread by @alexandrosM

Ok, let's work through VAERS data, see what can be known. First and very interesting datapoint is from April 2: "...there were only about 6 million v-safe users as of mid-March, yet about 90 million Americans had received at least their first dose by then."desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/…

This ^ is about the v-safe system, and implies a 6.6% signup rate by mid-March. What is more concerning to me though is that this quote is in a local newspaper,and I can't find any other data since. If anyone has more recent info I'd really like to see it.

V-Safe was launched in January as a way to get more data into VAERS. “Especially for these vaccines, we are going to hold ourselves to exceedingly high standards for safety monitoring after a vaccine is authorized and when it goes out more broadly” aappublications.org/news/2020/12/0…

"Anyone who reports a clinically important event — missing work, being unable to do normal daily activities or receiving medical care — will get a follow-up phone call and a report may be filed in the VAERS".

How about symptoms that are concerning but not acute? E.g. I got tingling and numbness in my limbs and face. This paper classifies it as a neurological symptom, but it resolved the next day. Is this what @BretWeinstein called "scary" and everyone freaked? sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

So, a quick review of what we have so far on V-SAFE. A single datapoint on conversion indicating 6.6% enrollment, multiple steps to get from enrollment to getting data into VAERS, and a bias toward acute events.

If I had to guess what the actual number of side-effects caught by V-Safe, it would probably be something like 1-2%, though I could see it being lower. I'm starting to get quite concerned, but I'll try to keep it together.

https://twitter.com/alexandrosM/status/1417964951507853314?s=20

The reason deaths in VAERS should be taken extra-seriously is that death is a binary symptom. You either have it or you don't. It can't be ignored, wished away, reclassified. At least not the actual event.

What I'd like to try and do before going much further is to do an extra-naive napkin calculation on what amount of deaths we would expect based on the amount of vaccinations performed thus far.

Oh! It seems @Volishun has another gem. It seems about 25% of reports in VAERS had location "foreign", which the CDC excludes from its numbers. Are these made in the US and sold abroad? Why does VAERS track those?

https://twitter.com/Volishun/status/1413641305616490501?s=19

OK, seems mystery resolved for now:

https://twitter.com/Volishun/status/1417981397453746186?s=19

I'm willing to believe that the way the various laws interact, we end up seeing foreign data in US VAERS in which case the CDC number must be the more reliable one. I'll work with that one until more news emerges.

OK so let's work with this number here, indicated by @mat_polaschek: cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

I'll pause here for now, but if I had a wish, oh magical internet genie, it would be to see age demographics of vaccinated population in the US, ideally with multiple snapshots over time?

Oh, and, anyone know how long after vaccination VAERS data is collected? I keep seeing mentions of "specified time period" but nobody specifies the fucking time period.