Thread by @AndrewHolnessJM

#Covid19Update #Thread

Based on the latest report from this morning, Jamaica recorded 122 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday. Our cumulative cases of COVID-19 are now 51,404 and, sadly 1,163 people have died.

I offer condolences to all those who have lost family, friends, loved ones and colleagues to this terrible pandemic. For all those who are in hospital fighting the virus as well as others who are ill but not hospitalized, I pray for a speedy recovery.

Since March 2021 during which we peaked at 15,944 new cases, the number of new cases of COVID-19 has been decreasing month-on-month. However, our July numbers are showing an uptick relative to June.

In June 2021, we averaged 52 cases per day. So far in July, we are averaging 62 cases per day. Yesterday, we recorded 122 new cases, our highest single day number in over 8 weeks since May 21.

A single day case number by itself is not necessarily indicative of a trend, however it should be noted that with our positivity rate, as at week 29, stands at 9.9%. This is indicative of a high level of transmission. Our target is to be at 5% or lower.

In relation to our Reproductive Rate, the advice from our epidemiologists was that we needed to maintain our Reproductive Rate below 1.0 for at least a six-week period. We managed to do so for 16 weeks, from Week 11 to Week 26 of 2021.

However, since Week 26, that is the week ending July 3, 2021, our Ro has exceeded 1 and is now at 1.1.

We are also seeing some changes in the geographical spread.

The Western parishes are experiencing a greater level of spread. Hanover and Westmoreland, for example, are seeing a level of spread on a per capita basis that is two to three times that of Kingston and St. Andrew.

Over the past seven days, Hanover and Westmoreland recorded 107 new cases while KSA and St. Catherine combined recorded 197 new cases yesterday.

The purpose of my presentation today is not to announce any changes to the measures which currently expire on August 10. However....

...based on the early warning signs, the Covid Sub-Committee of Cabinet will be meeting this weekend to review the situation to consider whether there may be a need to tighten some of the measures in advance of August 10.

As I had done last month when I announced the new measures, I urge all Jamaicans to exercise extreme caution; this is not the time to become complacent. I want to reinforce the need for everyone to be vigilant about observing the protocols & keeping ourselves & each other safe.

Some may say that I am being alarmist and that some amount of uptick in our numbers would have been naturally expected as a result of greater movement and gatherings.

We have seen, from the experience of other countries, and, indeed, from our own experience, how insidious this virus is and how quickly spikes can occur.

The US CDC reported last week that the 7-day moving average of daily new cases had increased by 69.3% in one week between July 9 and July 16.

The new more transmissible variant – the Delta variant – is now the dominant variant globally. It now represents almost all cases in the UK and 83% of all genome-sequenced samples in the United States.

While the samples we have sent off for genome sequencing have not indicated the presence of the variant in Jamaica thus far, it would be wishful thinking for us to believe that it will not make its way to Jamaica, if it is not already here.

Several countries whose vaccination levels far exceed ours are seeing spikes in new cases as a result of the delta & other variants. Data clearly shows, that the vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalization or death. In the US, 97% of the hospitalized are unvaccinated.

Two important points to note:

1.We are seeing an uptick in our numbers & may be in the early stages of our 3rd wave.The only way for us to prevent this is for all Jamaicans to take personal responsibility by exercising extreme caution & diligence in observing the protocols...

2.The vaccines have been proven to be highly effective in preventing hospitalization and death. I want to urge everyone who is eligible to take the vaccine. I want to urge everyone who has already received one dose to take the second dose.

We are now 16 months into the pandemic & we know how the virus spreads. We know what works & what does not work. The established protocols have been proven to work.

I reject the notion that opening up the economy & maintaining a low infection rate are not possible together.

It is possible to go about your normal daily activities but to do so in a safe way. What is driving the spread is indiscipline and lack of diligence in observing the protocols.

We must decide whether we act in a disciplined & cautious way, keep our economy open & earn our livelihoods or whether we want the path of indiscipline which will inevitably lead to a spike, forcing us to tighten measures. The choice is ours, individually & collectively.