All for a storm which doesn't yet exist.
Here we are now calling this #3rdStorm. The first 2 being #Cempaka (causing catastrophic and lethal flooding in south China) and #INFA which keeps getting stronger and more menacing and has the Eastern seaboard of China in its path.
The image above from the tip of the tail of #INFA's widening gyre. And this is where 3rd storm is expected to appear (i.e. where the Cyclonegenesis is expected to begin), albeit now later than originally expected, which for me at least is now a source of hope. Here's a live view.
If you squint & look very closely at the nook of the corner to the left of the tail faint traces of what could be rotation are there.
& If there's a tropical low in there then its a mystery why it hasn't been designated by JTWC as an area of interest requiring investigation yet.
A low if it is present should be rotating counter clockwise. And once we see that we will know #3rdstorm is forming.
I can see two changes in the latest model forecast.
1/ The first is that #3rdStorm development has slowed.
Left: Today's 6pm forecast for 25th July 00hrs
Right: Yesterday's forecast for 25th July 00hrs
And the 2nd difference is the intensity forecast for #INFA which is now significantly higher.
And it seems likely that it is this that is making the difference in the forecast.
But since the initiation data for the latest model was run, #INFA has now strengthened still further. And it could weaken at any time too. Very Severe Cyclones can do that. Or change direction. But in this case it doesn't seem likely that #INFA will weaken.
And here is the full reasoning behind their current intensity and track forecasts.
"THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS
WHETHER OR NOT THE STORM TRACKS INLAND OR RECURVES ALONG THE COAST NEAR SHANGHAI AND TURNS TOWARD THE YELLOW SEA*."
NOTE: The Yellow Sea is the sea west of Korea and it leads towards Beijing.
The final part of the discussion is on the models.
"MODELS DISC.: JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN TREND. THE FORECAST STAYS IN MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE."
The model shown above is the latest ECMWF above.
The GFS has a completely different view however. And the forecasts I have been mainly using have been the GFS forecasts. The GFS shows #INFA skirting the coast, far enough way to remain strong. A worst case prediction.
To make things worse in the GFS forecast (see previous tweet) #INFA slows down and does a little shimmy whilst off shore from Shanghai.
But one thing the two models agree on is #3rdStorm. The ECMWF has a slightly worse trajectory for the Olympics, but the timing, intensity and track of this (yet to appear) fast moving, not particularly strong storm is effectively identical.
In the JTWC forecast they say
"JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE >> ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN" <>
This is the ECMWF ensemble mean model.
And this is the EPS Ensemble models long-range rainfall forecast. Here we see that nearly all of Japan is forecast to get rainfall of 2 inches with peaks at a more modest 7.5 inches (20cm) but still a lot.
But this could well explain the lack of interest in the professionals in #3rdStorm. Everyone's eyes are entirely on #INFA. Here is the GEFS (GFS ensemble) model rainfall solution which is also not too bad for Japan.
Here are the latest (single model) rainfall solutions for the big two global models. 10 days
Left: ECMWF
Right: GFS
Which are similar except in relation to the Yellow Sea trajectory question. For China though the GFS model is much better.
All that being said, I am confused as to how this PWAT forecast doesn't result more rain over Japan. Especially the bit at the end.
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This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:
1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media. 2. This is not going to change any time soon. thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.
This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.
All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.
Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.
I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.
But the this bit is weird.
The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.
I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.
James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.
The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.
It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.
Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.