Want to understand what makes #USDINR interesting from an individual #option trader perspective.

Let's try to understand this in this thread. USDINR has both weekly and monthly options contract which are fairly liquid. Today was weekly expiry.
Weekly options expire every Friday at 12:30 pm and monthly options at 2 days prior to last working day of the month. Margin applicable in USDINR is normally between 2.5% to 3% depending upon volatility.
Margin for one lot of USDINR #straddle (74.50 July 30 expiry - weekly contract) is roughly Rs. 2600/2700 and premium received is around 35p, which on one lot comes to Rs. 350 ($1000*0.35).
On top of this, if one hedges the same by buying the wings, say 74 PE, costing 0.03p and 74.75 CE at 0.0975p, the net premium received comes to 22p (0.35 - 0.1275).

One can keep the fly at equal distance as well, depending upon one's view.
Now comes the extraction part - how much one can extract/expect to make out of this net premium at the end of next expiry on July 30. This depends upon the volatility.
And this is where USDINR gets more interesting for #optiontraders. Margin is a function of volatility. Lower the volatility, lower the margin.

Right now, implied vol in USDINR is 4.5% to 4.7%, which in turn is a function of realized vols and so the margin.
So finally, if one is able to extract even 30% of net premium, the net comes to 0.06p, which in Rs. terms comes to Rs. 60. Calculate your RoI and extrapolate this on 10/100 or 500 lots. Margin required for Iron butterfly is around 1600/1700 per lot.
If this looks somewhat interesting, it becomes more interesting with #TradeFreePlan.

Let's learn, adapt and grow.

kotaksecurities.com/investment-pro…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Vikas Bajaj - What do I do - Just FX-ing

Vikas Bajaj - What do I do - Just FX-ing Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @vikas_bazaz

21 Jul
Sometimes, regulatory changes have asymmetric impact on different products within same eco-system. Peak margin seems to be one, having salutary effect on currency volume on Indian exchanges.
Currency volumes on Indian exchanges (NSE + BSE) seem to be gaining momentum this year, after an almost flat volume growth over the last 3 years. Until June end, ADV is up by almost 31%. Image
But what is interesting to note is increasing option share in total volume.

Since Dec'20, when peak margin got introduced, option share in total volume (futures+option) is slowly inching up, thanks to increasing interest in weekly options contract + possible peak margin effect. Image
Read 15 tweets
20 Jul
USDINR futures closed at 74.71 for the day, almost 32p lower, despite dollar index holding up well. If private flow is the main reason for today's left side move in USDINR, overarching narrative for today can construed as capital flows.
Remember we talked about how it is important to identify narratives, and how it keep shifting from one factor to another.

Let's see if this narrative (flows) can play out on Thursday as well, in the background when dollar index is still holding up well around 93 levels and US 10Yr bond quoting below 1.20.
Read 4 tweets
26 Jun
Capital flows is one of the major indicators to look at, for INR movement. Higher the inflows, better it is for INR and vice versa.

But along with inflows, it is also important to see the quality and stickiness of flows.
Since India is a net importer country, meaning imports more than export, (thanks to large share of oil in import basket), it needs to meet its shortfall through capital flows.
A country gets the flows mainly through 3 sources:

1) Equity
2) Debt and
3) FDI
Read 11 tweets
25 Jun
Since currency is a pair trading - trading of currency of one country vs other (USD vs INR), there are two ways to look at a currency pair strength or weakness.
For example - in USDINR, when we say INR is strengthening, it can happen on account of two things - dollar weakness or INR own intrinsic strength.
When I say, INR intrinsic strength, it basically means strength on account of domestic factors, like economic (GDP) growth, positive real rates (inflation lower than policy rates) or improving trade balance (exports doing better import) etc.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(