It is indeed interesting that in October 2019 the UK government's own impact assessment on the Northern Ireland protocol simply states that there will be extra costs for movement of goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
This section from Wednesday's UK government paper seems to be deliberately misleading - the further discussions were on the exact administration of the checks, not their existence, which were known.
The UK government knew in October 2019 of the checks that would be put in place on GB - Northern Ireland goods. To suggest otherwise is simply a lie. A lie which in turn, by blaming the EU instead, makes serious negotiation impossible, because there can be no goodwill.
Ironically as anyone who knows the EU well is aware, they don't behave particularly well in negotiations. To give them the moral high ground, as globally accepted, takes some doing. But the UK government's obvious deceptions have done so.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

25 Jul
Just the chairman of a major UK company whingeing about international trade being unfair, and making it the fault of nasty foreigners. Not surprising M&S is struggling with 'leadership' (and I use the term loosely) as bad as this.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Perhaps if M&S had a Chairman who understood international trade it could have started making preparations for inevitable changes ahead of time?
Apparently Norman gets a salary of at least £600k for being M&S Chairman. Maybe a small deduction to pay for some trade expertise would be a better use of the company's money?
Read 4 tweets
25 Jul
A small straw in the wind to see arch old school Republican / free trader Irwin Stelzer support the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism, as well as a UK version. Shows again how out of touch the UK government is on international economy issues.
There is an urgent need for the UK government to lose a long outdated view of free trade as being about the absence of tariffs and engage with the actual world of non tariff barriers, global supply chains, and broader policy goals. Unlikely though while having the same advisers.
I suspect the UK will be forced to adopt our own carbon border pricing scheme very soon, overtaking the rather unimpressive green trade report of earlier this week. Because international political reality. Again.
Read 4 tweets
24 Jul
Lots of stories and tweets about shortages of food, and whether this is all about Brexit, covid, or a combination. In the last week I've seen one local supermarket overflowing and one with bare shelves. But the latter, a truly dreadful Tesco, often has those. So what's happening?
Sorry if you've heard this one before, but if you're running hugely complex modern supply chains, and throw in major changes to trade relations and labour market at the same time as a pandemic then some disruption is pretty likely. But generally we don't seem to have shortages.
Away from the excitable worlds of extreme remain and leave, seemingly only different in what happens after the country entirely collapses, lies the dull reality of global giants maintaining their supply chains as best they can around political change. Harder post Brexit, but...
Read 7 tweets
23 Jul
Basic millenarianism, the belief particularly common among cults of an impending fundamental transformation away from a rotten and doomed present. Average success rate, very low. But always more superficially attractive than gradualism.
Brexit as the path to fundamental societal transformation is particularly fragile given you immediately enter a permanent negotiation with a much larger neighbour dominated by small details upon which your economic structure depends.
Back to the classic Kafka quote, "Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy." Brexit as a revolution is leaving behind an expanded UK state because that's the global trend, the EU wasn't the unique evil after all.
Read 4 tweets
23 Jul
Sense in the last few years that Ministers didn't really understand that trade deals could be controversial, thought all opponents were simple protectionists, didn't really understand the changing world. That's starting to bite. ft.com/content/fbc38c…
All made worse by the first UK trade deal being with Australia, whose climate change denial was never going to allow linkage of huge gains for their agriculture sector with that issue or animal welfare. A strategic error with likely longer term consequences for UK trade.
It is simply not consistent for the UK government to say it is concerned about climate change or animal welfare, but that those who wish to tie preferential trade to these issues are protectionists. The second means you don't actually care about the first.
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul
I was asked a few times yesterday where I saw discussions on the Northern Ireland protocol heading, and the simple answer is that we're right now in an unsatisfactory but not completely unstable equilibrium between all parties, which could endure. politico.eu/article/brusse…
The EU thinks the UK is not implementing the protocol properly, taking account of EU flexibility, but ultimately should align. The UK thinks the EU is not implementing the protocol properly, taking account of UK implementation, and ultimately should allow a border free-for-all.
As long as the UK does not invoke Article 16 or the EU more serious legal action, then they can uncomfortably for both sides carry on as is - both unhappy it isn't being done to their specification, but both in particular not upsetting the US by going further.
Read 7 tweets

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