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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Jul 23, 2021 • 30 tweets • 14 min read • Read on X
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵 ImageImage
2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad. Image
3) I’m trying to find good things in the report—the 88% efficacy against hospitalization and 91% VE for severe #COVID19 death is good. But it is much weaker than the 93% reported 2 weeks ago for hospitalization, and 98% from May.

gov.il/BlobFolder/rep… Image
4) Let’s now look at breakthrough rates by when someone got their vaccination— you clearly clearly see than January vaccinated people currently have the most breakthrough per capita, followed by Feb… and so on. This is partly age (elderly vaxxed first) but possibly also waning. Image
5) This worrisome news is not just my perspective, the Israeli govt is quite worried too. They warn of “decreasing potency” i24news.tv/en/news/corona…
6) but is it just elderly effect in the weaker Jan/Feb potencies? Not sure… if you look at breakthrough rate in age 60+ versus 16-59, the 16-59 have similar if not higher breakthrough rate if comparing Jan vs Jan, Feb vs Feb of same month! That implies waning not just age. ImageImage
7) here was 2 weeks ago… VE was 64% for preventing infection in early June. 94% in May. But now it’s 39-40%. Gee.
8) Let me be clear—vaccines are amazing miracle. But we can’t just rely on just vaccines alone—must do other mitigation to get us out of the pandemic. Epidemiology models show that because #DeltaVariant so contagious, we *must must must* add masks and other NPI measures! ⬇️
9) Boosters—Biden WH Officials Now Expect Vulnerable Americans to Need Booster Shots—The growing consensus that at least some Americans will need a booster is tied in part to research suggesting that Pfizer’s vaccine is less effective after ~6 months. nytimes.com/2021/07/23/us/…
10) “Senior officials now say they expect that people who are 65 and older or who have compromised immune systems will most likely need a third shot from Pfizer or Moderna.”
11) “That is a sharp shift from just a few weeks ago, when the administration said it thought there was not enough evidence to back boosters yet.
12) “On Thursday, a key official at @CDCgov said the agency is exploring options to give patients with compromised immune systems third doses even before regulators broaden the emergency use authorization for coronavirus vaccines, a step that could come soon for Pfizer vaccine.
13) “Dr. Amanda Cohn, the chief medical officer of CDC immunizations division, told an advisory committee to the agency that officials were “actively looking into ways” to provide certain people access to booster shots “earlier than any potential change in regulatory decisions.”
14) there is some debate about the new 🇮🇱 ~40% efficacy data. Some say unvaccinated are tested more—true, but in that case, then we’d find relatively more cases in the unvaccinated, which would make the vaccine efficacy look BETTER, not worse (seen here).
timesofisrael.com/israeli-uk-dat…
15) Thus to rephrase—if unvaccinated are tested more than vaccinated, then we would fine more of the milder / asymptomatic infections in unvaccinated relatively, and that would make the vaccine efficacy look relatively higher, not lower. So that is unlikely to explain the VE dip.
16) another debate is that early vaccinations “reflect time that has passed since vaccination, but also… often people with health conditions and who are more prone to infection, such as the elderly.” We discussed this above—but again age isn’t explaining this—60+ & <60 similar. ImageImage
17) Some others say “oh it’s a smaller dataset than UK”—yeah but it’s still VERY significant. Notice how the 95% confidence intervals’ lower bounds all exclude zero—and by comfortable cushion of certainly. And the 40% VE’s upper bound excludes 88% from 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 data. So these are diff. Image
18) also if we look at just the elderly age 60+ (stratification is one form of adjustment in epidemiology), we still see the jump up among the January vaccinated even among these elderly. This implies this is an effect by time (stratified adjusted roughly for age), not just age. Image
19) given the new data—in following the precautionary principle—we need to now urgently reconsider reimposing mask mandates again. @CDCDirector - it is time. Tick tock ⏰
20) Whenever you see vaccine efficacy —keep in mind vaccines are amazing. But data suggest we need to also do both vaccines & public health measures (rather than rely on treatments). Iron lung machines was a good polio treatment, but it could never eradicate polio until vaccines.
21) Welp—there’s discussions among epidemiologists now whether we can hold the #DeltaVariant down. With a R0=6 we can just barely. But with an R0=8 it’s much harder under 60% efficacy and 64% vaxxed. What is the estimated R0 range of Delta? 5-8 ➡️ more contagious than smallpox.
22) large numbers of experts (including @JeromeAdamsMD) now support masks even if vaccinated. @CDCDirector needs to update mask rules ASAP now in light of the new data^
23) #DeltaVariant cases ➡️ hospitalizations. Period. The “link is broken” disinformation machine is running wild that they aren’t correlated anymore. Completely false. Do not fall for that nonsense. Hospitalizations rising in UK and US and Israel.
24) Vaccines are a miracle but we need other mitigation against #DeltaVariant. Iceland is one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world… but yet… and yes their ICUs are filling up too.
25) sure looks like we are headed to 3rd shot boosters… both the original vaccine booster as well as a #DeltaVariant tailored booster according to Pfizer. Their internal data also shows waning. finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-bi…
26) This is not good. Even under rosy optimistic scenarios, containing #DeltaVariant was already hard. But it’s not easy…. see details 🧵
27) REMINDER— even *mild* COVID still leads to drop in intelligence according to UK 🇬🇧 studies on #COVID19 survivors. The cognitive drop is stronger as it gets more severe, but even significant in the mild cases too! Avoid infection not just hospitalization!
28) Another reminder: mild breakthrough #COVID19 infections can still cause transmission. This is why we mask even if vaccinated! It slows and helps stop the spread. Mask and vaccinate … not just ‘or’.
29) we are mostly pretty certain boosters are coming… the issue is not if but when… and who first.
30) Pfizer reports 12% symptomatic efficacy after 4 months. But it was mostly data from the pre-#DeltaVariant era. Just FYI.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Sep 6
⚠️ZERO ANIMAL CONTACT HOSPITALIZATION for H5 Bird Flu—the CDC has now confirmed the first ever U.S. human case “without a known occupational exposure to sick or infected animals”—which make this Missouri case very worrisome. Maybe community transmission.
cdc.gov/media/releases…
Image
2) H5 outbreaks in cattle have not been reported in Missouri, but outbreaks of H5 have been reported in commercial and backyard poultry flocks in 2024.

—>>so it doesn’t seem to have come from cows in the state. So maybe from birds?
3) So if rarely test, how did we even find it?

“While other novel flu cases have been detected through the country's national flu surveillance system, this is the first time that system has detected a case of H5. Targeted H5-outbreak specific surveillance has been conducted as part of ongoing animal outbreaks and has identified all the other cases. In this case, the specimen from the patient originally tested positive for flu A, but negative for seasonal flu A virus subtypes. That finding triggers additional testing.”
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Aug 30
BREAKING—the FDA has just authorized the new Novavax vaccine, tailored to JN1 related variants. Anyone age 12 and over are eligible. You may receive it 2 months after a prior version of COVID-19 shot (and prior infection, though FDA memo didn’t specify).
fda.gov/news-events/pr…
Image
2) Also, the FDA has further authorized a 2nd shot of the new 2024-2025 formulated Novavax shot for people who are immunocompromised, at the doctor’s discretion. (Bullet point #4 below) Image
3) NAMING—Do not just refer to the shot as “2024” Keep the nomenclature of the new COVID shot straight - the newest one adapted for JN1-related variants is called the “2024-2025 formula”, while the old one was called the “2023-2024 formula”. The old one is no longer authorized. Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Aug 29
Scientists have discovered more than 1,700 ancient viruses deep inside a Tibetan glacier. Most of them are completely new to science. These ancient viruses are now being thawed out from glaciers and Siberian tundras.
e360.yale.edu/digest/ancient…
2) This is no joke.

Arctic zombie viruses in Siberia could spark terrifying new pandemic, scientists warn

Threat of outbreak from microbes trapped in permafrost for millennia raised by increased Siberian activity

theguardian.com/society/2024/j…
3) The reason permafrost is a good storage medium isn’t just because it’s cold; it’s an oxygen-free environment that light doesn’t penetrate. But current Arctic temperatures are warming up to 4x faster than rest of 🌏, weakening the top layer of permafrost
cnn.com/2023/03/08/wor…
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Aug 14
JUST IN— W.H.O. Declares Global Emergency Over New Mpox Outbreak. The threat this time is deadlier. Since the beginning of this year, the Democratic Republic of Congo alone has reported more than 14,000 mpox cases and 524 deaths. Those most at risk include women and children under 15. The outbreak has spread through 13 countries in Africa, including a few that had never reported mpox cases before.

(Gift 🎁 link)
nytimes.com/2024/08/14/hea…Image
2) public health emergency of international concern— Also known as PHEIC, this is a status given by WHO to “extraordinary events” that pose a public health risk to other countries through the international spread of disease.

cnn.com/2024/08/14/hea…
3) The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention declared the outbreak a public health emergency of continental security the day before — the first such declaration by the agency since its inception in 2017.
Read 15 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jul 19
Concerning—CDC now says that 42 states are seeing rising rates of #COVID19 again—with levels high or very high in 35 states (and rising). COVID wastewater levels have already surpassed last summer’s peak and climbing fast. #CovidIsNotOver
cdc.gov/forecast-outbr…


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2) Substantial 28% increase in one week. Question is how high it will go. It’s a new variant (mostly KP2 and KP3 and JN1), which are evasive against past infection and past vaccines.
3) COVID is surging in many countries worldwide. Eg in Italy where deaths are also climbing once again. New variants, new surges.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jul 3
A girl using cover name JANE DOE testified under oath at Ghislaine Maxwell’s criminal trial that she was introduced to Trump by Jeffrey Epstein when she was 14 years old. Pass it on.
Trump’s name appears 7 times in Epstein’s latest files. They regularly called each other according to phone logs. Trump says Epstein is a “terrific guy”. And he traveled on flights, according to logs, to Epstein’s island multiple times.
3) THIS STUFF IS NEW—not old Epstein-Trump info. New information regarding Epstein's child trafficking activities was released 7/2/24. Documents from 2016 are now out of date and do not show the depth of Trump's dealings with Epstein... READ MORE:

nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Read 4 tweets

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