Thread by @BryceWeiner

So let's have some fun, shall we?

Keep in mind I'm the guy that's been journaling all of this with a narrative that hasn't ever changed.

First: black hole
Second: filled with BTC
Now: the BTC has been used to buy commercial paper with a twist

But what does that mean?

A thread

https://twitter.com/bascule/status/1345845538646724608

The assets that WERE backing Tether aren't on the balance sheet, so Occam's Razor suggests they were used to buy the assets that are now present.

"Chinese commercial paper" is basically a bond on their over heated real estate market. Commercial paper usually has a 12 mo term.

I firmly believe that USDT was fully backed in '19, filling the hole left by Interpol seizing funds.

But as of January they had to report to SDNY. Coins as backing would have been a no-no cuz of the circular value proposition.

The coins had to be converted to something else.

This is my theory: Tether found an underwater sino real estate company and convinced them they could be saved if they just played along. Tether buys their paper w/ BTC, and the company can keep like 30%, but at the end the bond must be paid back w/ that BTC.

This means for Tether to get paid their investment + interest BTC must go up over 30% + interest. The company agrees and Tether gets the commercial paper just in time to file w/ SDNY and magically they are a less risky asset.

Chinese commercial paper is less risky than crypto.

But Tether now has 12 months to pump BTC, but they can't print any new USDT in the meanwhile cuz suss. So instead they accumulate USDT through sideways markets and dumping altcoins.

Why do alts dump w/ BTC if VWAP is in USDT?

Cuz that's how USDT is reclaimed from the market.

With everything now in the shitter and a warchest of USDT the USDT will now go into BTC while alts are "out of season." This is the exact mechanics behind "altseason": alts pump so they can be dumped later when needed to push up the BTC price.

Meanwhile...

At the end of the day, everybody wins. The company issuing the bond survives and repays it because the BTC they hold was pushed up in price by - whomever - which they can now pay back Tether + interest.

And Tether has money to print more USDT.

My bet is that this will only happen once because why mess w/ commercial paper when you can own ARKK, TWTR, MSTR, RIOT, etc.

When that happens USDT is a AAA asset.

It's evil fucking genius.

Here's the alpha: 75k in 12 months. 😉✌️🚀

Takeaway: any company w/ BTC on its books is Tether's bitch, because the stock price will forever be linked to their ability to pump ... or dump ... BTC.

Imma write this up longform and add it to Medium to keep the narrative cohesive and in a single place.

You can find Part 1 (the Black Hole) and part 2 (Stop worrying and love Tether) on the link in my profile.

Some more side notes....

* There is NO correlation between the BTC price and altcoins whose VWAP is set by a USDT base pair. That only happens against coins w/ the VWAP set by a BTC base pair... which ain't many of top 100 coins.

It's manufactured to accumulate USDT.

* My theory about the commercial paper deal and the probability of a future Wall St buy in are just abstractions of the original method of backing USDT w/ BTC.

It's the abstraction through other BTC correlated assets that now provides legal cover and risk off.

* The USDT printer won't kick up again until the commercial paper is replaced by equities, and that won't be until the bonds are repaid.

That doesn't mean a boring market since the bond needs a pump of - and I'm just guessing - about 40%.

* However once the paper is converted to equities the money printer is back on, as USDT pumps BTC which pumps the asset value of the publicly traded companies which hold it on the books, which increases the amount of value backing USDT, which allows them to print more.

* At the end of the day Tether turns 100% legit, transparent, and accountable and the Scooby Gang obsessed with making careers and gaining clout by shittalking unfounded and impossible theories about USDT just starts shouting at the wall and swinging at shadows.

Rekt.

Castor, Tomlin and the rest of the clout seekers are gonna hafta find a new schtick.

This might also explain why the CCP is going ape rn over crypto, too.

The sino RE market is a ponzi and this sort of play would create a winner. When the RE bubble pops insolvent firms will cause a cascade collapse but the BTC keeps that one firm afloat and solvent.

They might get away with it this time but the CCP doesn't want anyone else to get any funny ideas on how to prop up a ponzi.

FYI if you're an ETH person this should piss you off because this narrative is the exact reason ETH has such a problem overtaking BTCs market cap... it's in fact being used to create BTCs market cap.

ETH will never decouple from BTC while these mechanics are in play.

Never.

Are ETH whales just BTC maximalists in disguise? 🤔