An update on my partial RdRp #sarbecovirus tree. This is now the region 15000-16000 with many smaller sequences. nextstrain.org/community/baba…
Once sample is collected they do a PCR, if positive they sequence the region 15300-15700, if interesting they try to sequence the whole genome
No rhinolophids in America. In other countries rhinolophids were sampled and were negative to CoV or sarbecovirus. Turkey unsampled, there are sarbecoviruses there!
Recently published:
Lebanon, Russia (Sotchi), Croatia, UK.
In the SARS 1&2 clades: the Menglun samples, Thailand,Cambodia, 12 sequences likely from Jinning (where almost all good matches to SARS-CoV come from).
The African lineage was seen only in the great lakes region.
Four clades:
🔹Europe-Africa
🔹SARS2 (Yunnan)
🔹SARS (Yunnan)
🔹HKU3-Rf1 (Hong-Kong,Hubei,Zhejiang,Jilin,Guizhou..)
🔹Unclassified: India, Japan, a small Yunnan lineage.
🔹Outlier: Taiwan, in the Europe-Africa clade (?)
About the spillover potential: overall it is likely low, see all the species sampled in relation to the PREDICT project in a rectangle containing Yunnan and its borders, most (non-Rhinolophus) samples were tested for CoV and didn't contain sarbecoviruses.
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We found some raw reads unpublished as sequences (academic.oup.com/cid/article/71… ) and that Beijing's 1st case was earlier than thought
Overall we get 19 sequenced patients with onset in 2019, 16 of which are linked to the Huanan market.
We could then obtain a reasonable consensus genome for each of these early patients, likely representing the haplotype at the time of onset.
Next, we got some trees -dated by onset dates- finding a tMRCA in late November,
including one taking in account the epidemic curve. This is meant to represent more accurately the available data and the uncertainty on what may have happened before the 1st known cases.
The MVA-BN monkeypox vaccine en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavarian_… is attenuated (passaged in chicken cells) and replication incompetent in human cells. But in the same passages they obtained MVA-I721 and MVA-572 that are replication competent and genetically identical to MVA-BN 🤔
It is a vaccinia virus (strain Ankara, worth to mention as there is a lot of diversity in VACV), 97.6% identity both to monkeypox and variola virus on most of the genome. And it is MVA-I721 which replicates well in human cells.
The link available on sci-hub is doi.org/10.1016/j.vacc… They seem to suggest that MVA-I721 is a stock identical to MVA-BN but with a bit of genetic variability (a few lacking of an important deletion wrt Ankara) making it replication-competent (and able to kill AGR129 mice).
🔹On constate deux importations d'Italie.
🔹La seconde plus tardive en Alsace a bénéficié d'un événement de super-spreading lors de la réunion évangélique.
Pourquoi j'affirme que le sous-arbre vert est celui de Mulhouse : les dates, les lieux, l'homme de 86 ans à Thise nextstrain.org/ncov?s=France/…macommune.info/coronavirus-10…
Le fait qu'il y a deux gros foyers épidémiques bien identifiés en France : IDF et Alsace.
Deux versions (donc deux importations) de SARS-CoV-2 se baladent en Alsace fin février : celle du sud Espagne et celle d'Allemagne-Italie-Suisse-Pays-Bas.
0.05% de différence entre deux donc peu de chance de corréler à une différence de virulence ou contagiosité. @Brevesdepresse
Si on regarde les séquences des pays voisins de la France on couvre une bonne partie de l'arbre. Il y a eu une petite dizaine d'importations épidémiques en Europe et certainement plus que deux d'entre elles circulent en France. nextstrain.org/ncov?c=country…
@InstitutPasteur a enfin publié ses séquences de début mars de Haut de France, Ile de France et Grand Est. Sans surprise elles tombent dans le gros sous-arbre européen. La France a commencé à y créer son sous-arbre et a exporté aux USA et Pays-Bas.