Reason viral load (VL) becomes so important now is due to delta. So much more transmissible with those studies showing higher VLs. Those vax'd may get some in nose, will strengthen your immune response to fight it off so need to know if VL stays low washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
Then for a mild breakthrough infection after vax, is that when an antiviral like molnupiravir comes into play - best to stop viral replication early for mild disease (severe disease mediated by innate immunity which is why we use steroids)
And then severe disease of course prevented by vaccination which everyone very convinced of at this point with what we have seen from delta. So, working on getting vaccination rates up is of utmost importance as outlined well here @apoorva_nyc nytimes.com/2021/07/25/hea…
3 types of "breakthroughs" 1) asymptomatic: assess viral load - did you fight it in your nose & kept VL low & boosted immunity or VL high implications for transmission 2) symptomatic mild- oral antivirals coming 3) severe breakthrough, consider groups: boost immunocompromised
Oh and the ring to rule them all? Global vaccine equity and now, before end of 2021, get vaccines out worldwide. You think this pandemic never ends? It doesn't until we get life-saving vaccines to rest of world as soon as possible. kff.org/coronavirus-co…
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In this critical time of delta circulating, we need clean data on 1) what % admitted to hospital are unvaccinated; 2) if vaccinated, is it breakthrough or asymptomatic with universal screening; 3) if vax'd, need CT of PCR test or some way to know viral load
This article explains concept of viral load and how to determine from PCR cycle threshold (if that is the test hospital is using); rapid antigen is another test using lateral flow assay washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
If delta higher viral loads explaining transmissibility, 1) Asymptomatic breakthrough, low viral load: You fought the virus, brought it down & vax success, can't spread 2) Symptomatic breakthrough: Need to know if viral load high enough to transmit 3) Severe breakthrough: Boost
Think this is responsible reporting by the @HuffPostLife about breakthrough infections with delta as the promise of these amazing vaccines was in the yellow column, in preventing severe disease & death, which is what the vaccines are doing. Never before in history have we swabbed
noses for asymptomatic infection; vaccine trials always designed on preventing disease. No vaccine for common cold because that is not the disease vaccines needed for - vaccines needed for severe disease, so designed that way. COVID vax in that way work stupendously well
Wanted to address one thing before I come back since I live in SF & saw despair that masks recommended again as feeling like we took a "step back" as my friend @PCH_SF acknowledged in this piece. Know it feels disappointing: delta so fit, not expected sfgate.com/coronavirus/ar…
But thought you'd be interested in this from Israel on what they are calling "soft suppression" with the delta variant: not closing society as only high amounts of severe disease can do that (45 in hospital across whole country of 9 million) but doing 2 reuters.com/world/middle-e…
things: 1) keeping masks indoors for all, also normalize mask wearing for unvax'd (have pockets of communities not yet interested in vax); 2) tracking severe disease as main metric: tests are flawed (PCR without CT & cases not main metric with vax) jpost.com/israel-news/fo…
The Reassuring Data on the Delta Variant. By I and @LeslieBienen and @citizen_oregon . There are 3 things concerning about a variant - transmissibility, whether increased virulence & whether evades vaccines. Virus likely more "fit" which we explain wsj.com/articles/delta…
but to public, the delta will become the dominant variant if more fit. So, 2nd question is whether the delta is more virulent. Luckily, there is CDC publicly-available data one can download & look at this. 1st step is to show hospitalizations not increasing in kids with delta
Then one wants to look at regions with prominent delta prevalence in the US and ask whether "hospitalizations per case" is increasing to see if more virulent. Luckily, not the case as shown by the chart in the paper - actually hospitalizations per case less with more delta
I know many would like to put back masks for the vaccinated; every county's jurisdiction. But I encourage you to try to understand why @CDCgov released masks for vax'd which was around effectiveness of vaccines (even with delta)/reduced transmission after washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
I know vax'd talk to each other; unvax'd talk to each other and we are not conversing but their reasoning was helping unvax'd become convinced to vaccinate. This seems even more important to me today - to use science to convince those still on the fence to please get the vaccine
After CDC said masks not needed for vax'd in May, uptick in vax. So, masking after vax should done based on your personal risk tolerance/immunocompromise/elderly, but consider psychology of messaging in this delicate period cnn.com/2021/05/27/hea…
I know I have a mixed twitter following which earns me ire, but the reason I was so impressed by the @CDCgov guidance on schools last Friday and the follow-up @CAPublicHealth statement was how in-person learning with mitigation was stressed so much because so important for kids
@CAPublicHealth opted for universal masking in schools in order to forgo distancing so that children could get back to school. I saw @sfchronicle editorial board saying this am that they did an "about face" on this but they did not, actually. @CAPublicHealth (@TAragonMD)
said they would clarify their messaging so doesn't fall on districts to interpret and enforce, which they will. With delta, mitigation indicated at first, they chose masks will clarify for districts a likely metric-based approach of when mitigations ease nytimes.com/2021/06/08/opi…