In this critical time of delta circulating, we need clean data on 1) what % admitted to hospital are unvaccinated; 2) if vaccinated, is it breakthrough or asymptomatic with universal screening; 3) if vax'd, need CT of PCR test or some way to know viral load
This article explains concept of viral load and how to determine from PCR cycle threshold (if that is the test hospital is using); rapid antigen is another test using lateral flow assay
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
If delta higher viral loads explaining transmissibility,
1) Asymptomatic breakthrough, low viral load: You fought the virus, brought it down & vax success, can't spread
2) Symptomatic breakthrough: Need to know if viral load high enough to transmit
3) Severe breakthrough: Boost
Going back to our viral inoculum hypothesis, does delta's higher viral load account for transmissibility, faster spread? If asymptomatic & you fought it in your nose, that boosts immune response as antibodies (but not T/B cells) may wane
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…

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More from @MonicaGandhi9

28 Jul
Bit counterintuitive to think that vaccinated people with antibody & T cell islands in their nose to transmit infection at the same rate as those who are unvaccinated. So, would be good to see data & probably need culture data to confirm not dead viral particles from vax success
However, I think it is about inoculum. If you are vax'd & have high rates of community transmission around you, more likely for virus to get in, cause a mild breakthrough as stimulate antibodies (T cells, which fight severe disease already there)
Delta variant has higher viral loads than alpha or ancestral strain so I am sure -with those higher viral loads, vaccinated people can transmit with mild breakthroughs- However, transmitting at equal rates seems counterintuitive.
Read 4 tweets
28 Jul
Spoke to @fayeflam at Bloomberg last week of how vaccine memory should be long. There are many papers on this but I wanted to give you the 4 most interesting ones in this thread in my opinion.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/32-…
So, we all love this paper showing the vaccines generate memory B cells (even in the lymph nodes with biopsies) although La Jolla and other places had already shown memory B cell formation in blood in other studies
nature.com/articles/s4158…
So you have memory B cells and see a variant in the future? Even if your antibodies wane (which they will, not a glitch but natural for the immune system), you have the blueprint to make more from memory B & those antibodies will ADAPT to the variant
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 6 tweets
27 Jul
Wanted to explain what @CDCgov did today in terms of masking guidelines & why I think made sense. They did not say everyone mask- they said mask according to community transmission rates + vaccination rate in your community. I, @syramadad @ashishkjha wrote
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
this article in Washington Post a long time ago saying look at community transmission rates + vaccination rates as metrics of when to lift restrictions (we used a hospitalization metric of <5/100K because case rates can become uncoupled from hospitalizations at higher vax rates)
So, what did the CDC do today? They released this MMWR article saying just that- decide on masking on vaccination rates + community transmission rates. Why? Because we aren't where we wanted to be with vax rates in US by this time & we have the delta.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Read 7 tweets
25 Jul
Reason viral load (VL) becomes so important now is due to delta. So much more transmissible with those studies showing higher VLs. Those vax'd may get some in nose, will strengthen your immune response to fight it off so need to know if VL stays low
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
Then for a mild breakthrough infection after vax, is that when an antiviral like molnupiravir comes into play - best to stop viral replication early for mild disease (severe disease mediated by innate immunity which is why we use steroids)
And then severe disease of course prevented by vaccination which everyone very convinced of at this point with what we have seen from delta. So, working on getting vaccination rates up is of utmost importance as outlined well here @apoorva_nyc
nytimes.com/2021/07/25/hea…
Read 5 tweets
23 Jul
Breakthrough coronavirus cases are disappointing ― but most of them are also evidence that the shots are working. huffpost.com/entry/breakthr… via @HuffPostLife
Think this is responsible reporting by the @HuffPostLife about breakthrough infections with delta as the promise of these amazing vaccines was in the yellow column, in preventing severe disease & death, which is what the vaccines are doing. Never before in history have we swabbed
noses for asymptomatic infection; vaccine trials always designed on preventing disease. No vaccine for common cold because that is not the disease vaccines needed for - vaccines needed for severe disease, so designed that way. COVID vax in that way work stupendously well
Read 9 tweets
17 Jul
Wanted to address one thing before I come back since I live in SF & saw despair that masks recommended again as feeling like we took a "step back" as my friend @PCH_SF acknowledged in this piece. Know it feels disappointing: delta so fit, not expected
sfgate.com/coronavirus/ar…
But thought you'd be interested in this from Israel on what they are calling "soft suppression" with the delta variant: not closing society as only high amounts of severe disease can do that (45 in hospital across whole country of 9 million) but doing 2
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
things: 1) keeping masks indoors for all, also normalize mask wearing for unvax'd (have pockets of communities not yet interested in vax); 2) tracking severe disease as main metric: tests are flawed (PCR without CT & cases not main metric with vax)
jpost.com/israel-news/fo…
Read 9 tweets

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