Thread by @ashishkjha

For much of winter, spring, I was VERY optimistic we'd have a great summer with few infections, deaths

Through June, things looked good

But situation has clearly turned worse

There are 3 things that have turned out worse than I anticipated

So lets talk about them

Thread

1. Delta -- turns out to be way more contagious than anything we've seen before

2. Vaccinations. We hit a wall with under 50% of population fully immunized

3. Waning immunity -- still prelim -- but more breakthrough infections as folks get further out from their shots

2/4

Combo:

Super contagious variant
Lots of unvaccinated folks
And more breakthrough infections

Sets up a vicious cycle

And a tough few months ahead

We need to break the cycle

How?

Public health measures (masks, reduced indoor gatherings, ventilation, testing) will help

3/4

But only one thing tames the pandemic durably

Much higher levels of population immunity

How high? Probably 85-90%

We're at about 67% (with prior infections counted)

So we need a lot more vaccinations

Or a lot more infections (and thus, suffering)

I knew which I prefer

End