Thread by @adamvoge

Why I think a big Pepe year is coming, backed by numbers, in thread form. Buckle up!

@afcnine @LinkUpArsenal @YouAreMyArsenal @itsdjharry @scoutingindoors @mike_mmcdonald

In 20-21, Pepe played 32.6 90s, up slightly from his first year at Arsenal, but still down from Lille. He struggled in year one to match his output from his last year in France, as you'd expect after a league change. But year two saw bounces back in goalscoring and shooting.

One area Pepe did not improve last year -- assists. His assists/90 were halved, and his xA were down by about 30 percent. He absolutely needs to do better finding his teammates and creating chances, but here's reason to be encouraged that he can.

In 20-21, Pepe got off to an incredibly slow start. In league play, he started four games of the first 19. In those minutes -- four shot-creating actions. But Jan. 26 on, Pepe started 12 times and created 33 shots -- almost three per 90. Improvement, but still room to grow.

Here's a narrative against Pepe: The team doesn't win with him. At first glance, it's true! Among players with significant playing time, only Pepe and Bellerin had negative xG +/- last year. 😳

But consider this: Pepe made 16 starts.

In 11 starts with at least one of ESR/Saka in the lineup:
19 points, 18 goals, 13.7 xG, +2.2xGD

5 starts without either of them:
2 points, 2 goals, 4.2 xG, -3.9xGD

Pepe's multiple starts with Nketiah, Willock, Willian tanked his +/-.

As I've covered for @LeGrove, Pepe was DIFFERENT after the ESR switch. His KP/90, npxG+A, xgChain and xgBuildup all doubled or got close to that.

One area of note for Pepe: his dribbling. He was prolific at Lille, converting 121 dribbles at a 60.2 percent rate of success. Year one at Arsenal: 87 with a 54.4 percent rate. Three players topped that number this year. Last year: 61, at a 45.5 rate. He can do better.

One more area to be encouraged: Pepe's non-attacking contributions are getting better. Even as a breakout star at Lille, he only contributed 1 tkl+int per 90. He upped that to 1.77 with Arsenal, and then again to 2.18 per 90 last year.

Pre Jan. 26, Pepe started four times and completed 6 tackles+interceptions, 1.5 per 90. In his last 12 starts? 27. If he can keep that up, and keep working to make better passes than early last season, there's a good chance he can earn Arteta's trust and have a great year.