What's scarier than Delta? These are three things I worry about.
1) The emergence of future variants that can escape vaccine-induced immunity. Delta may not be the worst variant the virus deals us. Continued uncontrolled spread around the world makes this scenario more likely.
2) Resistance to effective disease control measures such as masking & vaccination that results in many preventable deaths. We underestimate Covid at our peril. Listening to/addressing concerns of every community, and implementing proven ways to save lives must be our way forward.
3) The lack of a common understanding that our actions affect others. It's humans vs. microbes. We're all in this together.
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Schools will open in weeks in the US with the Delta variant spreading rapidly. What does this mean for kids—especially those under 12 who aren’t eligible for vaccination? How can we keep them safe? These are important questions that require practical, thoughtful answers. 1/thread
The Delta variant is much more transmissible than the original virus and makes up at least 83% of sequenced cases in the US. Although most adults are now fully vaccinated, that’s not the case for adolescents, and kids under 12 can’t be vaccinated yet. 2/
Good news: Most kids who get Covid will have mild or no symptoms, and there’s no evidence that Covid caused by the Delta variant causes more severe illness among kids. 3/
I’m hearing from vaccinated people who are frightened about breakthrough cases, the Delta variant, and new waves of Covid. But it’s not vaccinated people who should be most concerned. Here’s what I expect to happen over the coming weeks. 1/thread
Globally, we’re far from the end of the pandemic. Delta is at least two times more contagious than the original virus, which means it will infect and kill more people. 2/
Many countries have so far avoided big surges but haven’t had access to the vaccines needed to vaccinate their populations. Many of these countries will likely see explosive spread of Covid over the coming weeks and months. 3/
How big of a threat does the Delta variant pose? New developments show that the challenges we face in controlling Covid are immense. Millions of lives are at stake globally. 1/
It’s now clear that Delta spreads more readily than initial strains of Covid. It’s at least two times as infectious. bit.ly/3hLFTU0 2/
Delta may or may not be more deadly on a case-by-case basis, but because there are so many more cases, more people will get very sick, and more will die. 3/
Vaccination gives you higher antibody levels and much stronger protection against Covid than natural infection, according to the best data we have today. If you recovered from Covid but still haven't been vaccinated, you may be vulnerable to reinfection—especially by Delta.
We're still learning about the duration and robustness of different types of immunity, but research suggests that people who've already had Covid are safer when they're vaccinated. Some examples:
In one study, antibody titers in people who received mRNA vaccines were up to 10 times higher than in people who recovered from natural infection. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
The Delta variant poses a huge threat—but not to vaccinated people. Unvaccinated people are still being hospitalized and killed by Covid, and we’re seeing worrying Delta-fueled outbreaks, particularly in places with low vaccination rates. 1/
Don’t get caught up in fears that Delta is evading vaccine immunity. Our vaccines are working. Evidence has shown that mRNA vaccines provide excellent protection, J&J announced that their vaccine is likely also effective against Delta. bit.ly/3he9SoU 2/
Good news: Getting vaccinated virtually eliminates your risk of being hospitalized or dying from Covid. bit.ly/3jztwwT 3/
An article was published this week that has findings which could save millions of lives. Why did you miss it? Because there was zero media coverage of it. Zero! Tells you something. Tells you a lot, actually. So, here are the details. 1/thread
High blood pressure is the world’s leading killer – and will kill more people, including more young people, than COVID-19 this year. It can be prevented (mostly by lowering sodium) & treated, but, globally, only 1 in 10 people with high blood pressure have it controlled. 2/
Elegant studies by @SarahLewington2 prove for every 20-point increase in blood pressure, the death rate from cardiovascular disease DOUBLES. What’s more, this starts at a blood pressure of 115/75 – way below the usual level at which we treat, or toward which we aim treatment. 3/