How big of a threat does the Delta variant pose? New developments show that the challenges we face in controlling Covid are immense. Millions of lives are at stake globally. 1/
It’s now clear that Delta spreads more readily than initial strains of Covid. It’s at least two times as infectious. bit.ly/3hLFTU0 2/
Delta may or may not be more deadly on a case-by-case basis, but because there are so many more cases, more people will get very sick, and more will die. 3/
Vaccines that have been studied work very well against Delta, especially to prevent severe illness and death. Vaccines can save your life from Delta, as they can from other strains of Covid. 4/
The higher infectivity of Delta means the threshold for herd immunity will be higher. 70% may have been enough before, but likely isn’t high enough against Delta. That’s why we’re seeing case increases even in places like the UK and Israel, which have high vaccination rates. 5/
Delta is already causing an increase in cases in the United States—especially in places with less vaccination coverage. 6/
Arkansas (35% of population fully vaccinated), Missouri (40%), and Louisiana (36%) are the three states seeing the highest rates of Covid cases per capita. 7/
The increase in US cases will be followed within weeks by an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, almost entirely among people who have not been fully vaccinated. 8/
Unless action—vaccination, masking, distancing—is taken now, this increase in cases will continue into September and make return to school more complicated. Everyone should get vaccinated. 9/
Whether you should wear a mask depends on:

—Who you are (weak immune system?)
—What you’re doing (indoor aerobics in poorly ventilated gym?)
—Where you are (community with lots of Covid spread?)

Fully vaccinated people don't need to mask in many places, but it doesn’t hurt. 10/
Vaccination is the surest way to stop Covid, including the Delta variant. Low vaccination rates increase the disruption the virus will cause. 11/
Increasing vaccination rates will be most effective if tailored to each community, addressing both convenience and concerns, and avoiding communication or partisanship that can increase resistance. 12/
Vaccination verification can facilitate reopening sooner and more safely, but has unfortunately become politicized, making it harder to implement. 13/
Delta may well not be the worst variant the virus will deal us. 14/
We won’t know if the vaccines need to be tweaked or if boosters are needed unless there are breakthrough infections, which can tell us whether and which people may need boosters, and how often, if at all. 15/end

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More from @DrTomFrieden

8 Jul
Vaccination gives you higher antibody levels and much stronger protection against Covid than natural infection, according to the best data we have today. If you recovered from Covid but still haven't been vaccinated, you may be vulnerable to reinfection—especially by Delta.
We're still learning about the duration and robustness of different types of immunity, but research suggests that people who've already had Covid are safer when they're vaccinated. Some examples:
In one study, antibody titers in people who received mRNA vaccines were up to 10 times higher than in people who recovered from natural infection. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 7 tweets
2 Jul
Vaccines Stop Cases…If They’re Given

The Delta variant poses a huge threat—but not to vaccinated people. Unvaccinated people are still being hospitalized and killed by Covid, and we’re seeing worrying Delta-fueled outbreaks, particularly in places with low vaccination rates. 1/
Don’t get caught up in fears that Delta is evading vaccine immunity. Our vaccines are working. Evidence has shown that mRNA vaccines provide excellent protection, J&J announced that their vaccine is likely also effective against Delta. bit.ly/3he9SoU 2/
Good news: Getting vaccinated virtually eliminates your risk of being hospitalized or dying from Covid. bit.ly/3jztwwT 3/
Read 11 tweets
21 May
Taming the World’s Leading Killer

An article was published this week that has findings which could save millions of lives. Why did you miss it? Because there was zero media coverage of it. Zero! Tells you something. Tells you a lot, actually. So, here are the details. 1/thread
High blood pressure is the world’s leading killer – and will kill more people, including more young people, than COVID-19 this year. It can be prevented (mostly by lowering sodium) & treated, but, globally, only 1 in 10 people with high blood pressure have it controlled. 2/
Elegant studies by @SarahLewington2 prove for every 20-point increase in blood pressure, the death rate from cardiovascular disease DOUBLES. What’s more, this starts at a blood pressure of 115/75 – way below the usual level at which we treat, or toward which we aim treatment. 3/
Read 14 tweets
18 May
Estimated excess mortality during the pandemic far outstripped officially reported Covid deaths in most countries. However, many countries, and in particular low- and middle- income countries, don’t estimate excess deaths econ.st/33VduV6 1/
Statistical modelling by @TheEconomist suggests the Covid death toll is between 7.1m and 12.7m. That means the official death toll represents, at best, about half the true toll and, at worst, a quarter of it. 2/
Most uncounted Covid deaths occurred in LMICs. In OECD countries, the true death toll was estimated to be 1.2 times the official number; in parts of Africa, it was estimated to be 14 times the official number. 3/
Read 4 tweets
14 May
A Tale of Two Pandemics

The pandemic won’t be over until most of the world is vaccinated, but access is a HUGE challenge.

Globally, we must scale up manufacturing and vaccinate the 50M health workers & 1B people over 60. In the US, we must proactively reach the unreached. 1/
Vaccine inequity is a serious problem, both ethically and epidemiologically. It increases the risk that dangerous variants will emerge. Wealthy countries have excess vaccines while lower and middle-income countries go without. 2/ Image
The reality is that global vaccine supply will lag the need for at least a year. Open IP is a step, but we need much more—transfer of vaccine technology and hubs for production. We can also be more strategic in use of the vaccine that is available. 3/
Read 23 tweets
13 May
The Last Pandemic?

The Covid pandemic has killed 3+ million people and driven 115M people into extreme poverty. It will cost the world $22 trillion by 2025. And it didn't have to happen.

A new report could be pivotal in efforts to prevent the next pandemic. 1/
The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response (@TheIndPanel) was created last year by @WHO to ensure the world is better able to address health threats such as Covid. They released a sweeping new report. nyti.ms/2RS1TTV 2/
Because the recommendations detailed in the report are so important, I’m going to highlight some of them in the hope that the story of Covid isn’t repeated. Read the report here: bit.ly/3w6nEyr 3/
Read 24 tweets

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