Thread by @shortthought

The rules state planning should be decided in 13 or 16 weeks, yet this period is rarely met in practice & instead planning can take years; as a Lichfields review examples.
Yet politicians/councils often say planning isnt a barrier to housebuilding so let's test that theory.
1/15

To do this, I'll use 22 Southwark Council projects, citing how long they expect them to go from planning to completion. First, 2 baselines.
Completed - Gatebeck House - 9 social homes - 4 years
In construction - Harper Road – 8 social, 2 genuinely affordable – 3 years so far
2/15

Now the projects & expected timeframes -
Rochester Estate - 3 social homes – 2 years
Dodson Street – 11 social homes - 2 years, 3 months
Styles House – 24 social homes – 3 years
Lomond Grove – 22 social homes – 2 years, 9 months
Elim Estate – 32 social homes – 3 years

3/15

Land Between Redcar Street & Wyndahm Road – 37 social homes, 36 outright sale – 3.5 years
Goschen Estate – 16 social homes – 3 years, 3 months
Seavington House – 25 social homes – 2 years
Alderney Mews Garage Site – 7 social homes – 2 years, 6 months

4/15

Rockingham Estate Roof Top Development – 10 social homes – 2 years
LeatherMarket – 40 social homes – 5 years 3 months
Falmouth Road – 14 social homes – 2 years
Henslowe Road – 3 social homes – 3 years 6 months
Underhill Road – 3 social homes – 3 years 3 months

5/15

Ivy Church Lane – 21 social homes – 30 months
Maltby Street – 42 social homes – 3 years
Priory Court – 9 social homes – 2 years, 3 months
Bells Gardens – 65 social, 32 outright sale – 3 years
Linden Grove – 27 social – 4 years 6 months

6/15

Finally;
Southdown House – 10 social homes, 8 genuinely affordable – 4 years, 9 months

This averages out to 3 years per scheme, no negotiation delay on planning contributions, on mostly brownfield & within London, a city with the most unaffordable housing in the UK.

7/15

Remember that baseline? Many of the schemes above will take much longer than the expected timeframes, for a number of reasons & some may not make it!
But the delay of desperately needed homes is just one issue.

What about the financial cost of delay?

8/15

While waiting for planning, you're also paying for staff, servicing your lender & watching material prices rise.
If it takes two years to get on site, value engineering & viability assessments (if market) might be the only way to make your project viable.

9/15

But let's look at some specific price rises.

In the last 12 months, structural steel prices have gone up 38%, plywood 22.3% & bagged cement 15%. Oh, lead times for products can be months & some are rationed.
Currently, covid + planning delay is really hurting industry.

10/15

But let's take covid out of it.
In 2017/18, timber prices rose by 30% and cement by 3.3%. In 2016/17 steel rebar went up by 15% & plasterboard by 7%.

These aren't unusual increases, so over 2 years, viability becomes a major issue. Over 5, projects can be in real trouble!
11/15

Oh and labour costs go up too, if you can get it and on time, which is sometimes hampered by planning conditions that planners can take an age to sign off!
This table from Hudson Contract, a payroll firm, examples labour cost rises.

12/15

It's worth noting that 'planning' isnt just someone in a planning department but the planning process as whole, including statutory bodies such as water companies, who must also sign off conditions and politicians who regularly stifle projects for their own political gain.
13/15

This thread is a tiny example of why planning is a barrier to housebuilding & why @RobertJenrick's #planningreform is so vital.
If councils can't build quickly on brownfield & their development costs go up month by month, doesnt that tell us there's a problem with planning?
14/15

Now imagine being a market/self builder/housing association, with less planning control & more risk to mitigate! You are completely at the mercy of a broken planning system!

Without #planningreform, the #housingcrisis will get worse & it's time we recognised that reality.

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