Thread by @DrewFBGAuctions

Absolutely brutal court day but it looks like life is gonna tag out for a breather & I have a few minutes to do a #DeshaunWatson #FFLegalUpdate.

I have quite a few new followers recently so some of this info may be repeated, but I'll try to stay away from too much of that.

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First - my standard comment about victims and these cases: Please be respectful to the alleged victims and to what happens to their lives when they come forward. We only know what's in the complaints. We owe it to them, to Watson, and to the legal process to not overreact.

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Second - most of what I'm going to comment on is law stuff. I'm not an "NFL punishment" guru. I know the law because I've been a lawyer for 20 years. But the league is notoriously difficult to read on suspensions. I'll give you my opinion on that, but keep that in mind.

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And finally, if you want to hear me talk about this stuff in more detail my show has regular legal updates along with plenty of fantasy talk.

So, with the news that Watson has reported to camp, this thing has changed a little bit, but not much.

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podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/auc…

As I've been saying the past few weeks, when pressure builds things tend to shake loose.

With Watson reporting the pressure is now on to resolve his situation both football-wise, and legally. This puts pressure on ALL parties. Including the NFL.

#FFLegalUpdate

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There were some interesting comments in the recent article on the NFL's website about his situation. Both of them stuck out as being pivotal comments.

Here's my thoughts on those two quotes.

#FFLegalUpdate

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"[the league] has not concluded that a major violation occurred."

Taking it literally, this is obvious. Had they found that already he'd be suspended. But you have to read between the lines. Language is chosen carefully (usually by lawyers). BUT....

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...don't forget we have to square that with the victims' lawyer who said they felt they weren't being "respected" by the league.

At one point Buzbee indicated they had only interviewed four alleged victims. We don't know anything further than that about their investigation.

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However, the recent quote gives me this thought process:

Either the NFL is not convinced by what they've heard so far OR they are purposely dragging their feet until their hand is forced.

#FFLegalUpdate

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What the quote does NOT mean is that they found he didn't do anything wrong or that he won't be suspended for anything they found or find going forward. Don't jump to that conclusion.

We don't know if the number of victims interviewed by the league is higher than 4 rn.

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Which ties into the next comment.

"With no criminal charges imminent..."

This is a LOADED statement. Does that mean they aren't coming soon? At all? And where did the info come from that they aren't imminent? I'm skeptical of this statement in general.

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It would be odd for the HPD to be handing out timeline information on their investigation. It could happen, obviously, but it would be inappropriate in my eyes.

The reason I say the first comment and this one tie together is the investigation vis a vis the victims.

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At one point "8 to 10" of the alleged victims had been interviewed by HPD. That is significant.

As I said in the beginning when I read the civil complaints, not all of the behavior alleged rose to the level of being criminal. That's likely part of the NFL's rubric for...

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...who they are choosing to interview.

What's eyebrow raising to me is to claim "no major violations" when at least two of the civil suits allege Felony-level sexual assault.

There is a huge gap between what the NFL is seeing and what is alleged in the civil suits.

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Is that lack of zeal from the NFL? Maybe. Maybe it helps them if they let this go another 4-6 weeks and maybe Watson settles and this thing clears up a bit for them. Who knows. That's the NFL and I don't deign to know their thoughts right now.

Here's the important part...

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It's possible the HPD is the bridge to that gap, at least for us interested in fantasy football and the NFL's possible reaction.

As I've said repeatedly, until we know the disposition of the HPD investigation we know nothing.

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The other thing I've preached is understanding the news cycle here. Things change in 5 minutes, especially with camps opening. 5 weeks is an eternity, and we have more than that until opening weekend. A LOT can change.

I'm seeing lots of optimism for Watson right now.

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I don't know that it is warranted. I'm MORE hopeful he can play this year than I was. But that doesn't mean I'm optimistic.

The civil process will last the whole football season. I suppose the NFL could let him play while that plays out, but that would...

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...surprise me. I'd bet on Watson blinking and settling, or the league being forced to act before the season starts.

If they don't, picture the following scenario....

Week 4 in the NFL...first victim is deposed. Watson getting questions. Headlines dominated by....

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...social media, leaks, speculation, and then follow that up with 19 more depositions.

I can't imagine the league wants it to get there.

I still can't imagine *Watson* wants it to get there.

Save all these tweets and I deserve ALL the smoke if I'm wrong but...

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....I'm steadfast in the belief this thing settles at some point. My guess is before the season. But settlement is the smart legal play IMHO. Lots of things can derail that, so understand there are LOTS of moving parts still.

But that's where I'm at.

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My conclusions:

- the league has not closed the door on discipline and plans to keep their "mind" open
- the criminal investigation is still THE most important part of the puzzle. We have NOTHING on that

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- I'm slightly more confident today than I was that he could play this year, but only slightly
- the cases still have a high likelihood of settling
- Remember: one victim makes things unpredictable, 22-24 makes it exponentially harder

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It's easy to forget, I saw approx 7 different kinds of victims in my cases. TODAY. And all the cases resolved differently.

Imagine 22. In two courts. And the league's "court". This is far from over. I've seen a lot of optimism. I advise pumping the brakes.

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I'm coming around to the idea that he plays some this year, but making that prediction seems futile.

Proceed with extreme caution for redraft.

Proceed to BUY for Dynasty purposes.

I hope this helps.

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As always, please feel free to hit me with Qs, I try to answer as much as I can. My DMs are a mess, but I try.

Thank you for reading, tune in to my show for more detail, & please RT & follow if the feeling moves you.

I'll keep you updated as things happen.

#FFLegalUpdate
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