1/ Clearing up confusion about what it means that Delta viral loads are ~1000x higher than the viral loads seen with the original SARS-CoV-2. medpagetoday.com/special-report…
2/ We need to be precise in speaking about infectiousness.
Exposure = Dose x Time
If viral loads in infected people are ~1000x higher with Delta than original SARS-CoV-2, the dose of virus to which the uninfected person is exposed has gone up ~1000x.
3/ Exposure = Dose x Time
If Dose increases 1000x
the Exposure you would have gotten from an infected person early in the pandemic over 15 minutes
you now get in 0.9 seconds (~1 second).
15 minutes = 900 seconds
But in NEITHER scenario are you 100% sure to be infected.
2/ COVID VACCINES WORK. They protect you from severe disease, hospitalization, and death.
IF YOU HAVEN'T YET GOTTEN VACCINATED, THIS IS THE TIME.
3/ The Delta variant has turned suburban streets into a @NASCAR track.
Seatbelts might be enough to keep you safe when you're driving in your suburban neighborhood, but if you're a NASCAR driver, you also want a helmet, airbags, and more.
1/ "As we have said, this [COVID] is very heterogeneous across the country, and these decisions have to be made at the local level." —@CDCDirector@RWalensky
2/ "If you have areas of low vaccination & high case rates...local policymakers might consider whether masking...would be helpful for their community until they scale up their vaccination rates..." —@CDCDirector@RWalensky
3/ This speaks to our broken federalist approach to public health:
- technical guidance from the @CDCgov that needs to be interpreted locally
BUT
- no real power or $$$ at state/local level
Delta is 2.4-3.3x less susceptible to neutralizing Abs elicited by prior infection or Pfizer/Moderna vaccination as compared to the early WA1/2020 variant.