Thread by @johnnie_jacks

$BTC

I'm still in my long from 32K

Coming to the chart fresh and going through my ideas about what happens next

Thought I'd share my process with you guys

1/

I know it's "in vogue" now but the way I've developed TA over time is to use mainly Price Action, Volume Profile and Market Profile

So first, I want to check the volume for the mid term range

We have closed the first Daily candle above the VAH of the range since June 16th

2/

On June 16th however the VAH was much higher, so this makes the recent daily close more significant to me

3/

Now if we look at the larger "upper" range since December 2nd, we have had our first Daily close inside the VA for 43 days

The VAL of this large range and VAH of the local range are very close

4/

As we can see, we have failed to get above the lower white line so far and as you'd expect, it is a LVN

If we get into the area between the 2 white lines, the lack of previously transacted volume could help to accelerate price from the lower to upper region

5/

The Value Area since ATH has a similar lack of volume, as not much volume was transacted (relatively speaking) either on the way up or way down

The anchored VWAP from the high could act as resistance if we get there

6/

Ok so let’s have a look at MS

Weekly - ranging
Daily - bullish
4H - ranging
1H - bullish (but depends if we put a HH in here)
5m - bearish

This is always open to interpretation to some degree but we can see that locally the trend is against the higher timeframe trend

7/

Looking at the market profile using TPO (with Monday and Tuesday merged) we are currently in a neutral day, being kept down by the Selling Tail of the past 2 days

8/

How can we trade this though?

Just as yesterday, the daily open was outside of the previous day value area

Which means we have a setup where if we get accepted into pdVAH, we could rotate to the pdVAL

Local downtrend plays into this setup

9/

The thing is, there is a potentially tricky setup here though even if we get into the pdVAH

There is a nice potential SFP of the TPO POC (from Monday/Tuesday) and a local lows that should have some liquidity to take, as well as a Daily nPOC

10/

This move up would fit with the higher timeframe trends, so if a short gets activated, I would definitely be cautiously monitoring for something like the above happening

Taking profits aggressively will be a must for me

11/

But what if we don't go lower and just keep going up?

I'm still watching for something like this

Take local highs, take MTF highs, take major highs (also a major golden pocket region), everyone turns full bull, load up huge limit short orders, dump it

12/

This could turn into an epic short, with this being a last major bounce before more downside

Would definitely catch a lot of the market offside, with everyone expecting higher at that point

But there's no way to say yet without watching the data (OI/Delta/volume etc)

13/

So now I have a plan

No trade here but if it goes lower, I have a plan

If it goes higher I have a plan

So instead of panicking and rushing a trade, I set my alerts and can relax knowing I know what to do when something happens

14/

Glossary:
VA = Value area
VAH = Value area high
VAL = Value area low
POC = Point of Control
MTF = Medium Time Frame
VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
pd = Past Day
OI = Open Interest
TPO = Time Price Opportunity (I use Exocharts.com)
nPOC = Naked Point of Control
15/

Got questions?

Ask away!

Please send as a comment and not a DM, because if you have the question I guarantee others do too

16/END!